Sunday, December 24, 2006

The Seahawks have a panacea game this week against the Chargers. San Diego is atop everyone's power rankings. If Seattle can pull out a win, then the Seahawks will be cured of all ills in the minds of the media. It would help team psyche as well as clinch a playoff spot and essentially give the Seahawks a Week 17 bye against Tampa Bay. It would allow them to rest some key players because the Seahawks will likely be locked into the #4 seed.

The road through the playoffs would be a home game, then a road trip to Chicago. If a wildcard team can make it through Dallas and New Orleans, then Seattle would host the NFC Championship game. If the Seahawks lose today, they could still rest up in Week 17 if San Francisco loses to Arizona this week.

Sunday, December 3, 2006

The Seahawks face a tough Broncos team in Denver tonight, where is should be in the low 20s at kickoff (at least there is no precipitation on the Doppler). The Seahawks get a chance to feast on a rookie quarterback making his first start, but that might not be as mouthwatering as lining up opposite Jake Plummer. The cornerbacks should have more confidence after Marcus Trufant, Kelly Herndon, and Kelly Jennings all picked off passes last week and that should translate into interception chances.

The Seahawks will be bringing the heat on Jay Cutler, but they must do it effectively or he will beat the secondary. The Broncos have all kind of trouble at left tackle - Matt Lepsis tore his ACL and backup Erik Pears is probable with an ankle injury. Lepsis was in line to go to the Pro Bowl after Willie Roaf retired. The Seahawks will likely bring the heat with Julian Peterson from Cutler's backside, but Leroy Hill could be the better option. Hill has been misused this year, but he can really get to the quarterback. It would be nice to see pressure come from Hill at times because Peterson is better in coverage. It is too late in the season for a major change, but Hill would be more effective on the right side.

Kelly Herndon could be the key to this game. He used to play in Denver, so Mike Shanahan knows how to best take advantage of him. Herndon should be covering the older, slower Rod Smith, but Herndon's toe appears to be bothering him. Marcus Trufant will need help to contain Javon Walker, so Herndon will be matched up one-on-one more often than not. Herndon should be up to the task, but he needs to keep Smith in front of him if he can. If the Seahawks choose to put Herndon on Walker or not give Trufant help on Walker, then Jay Cutler will find #84 for more than one touchdown.

The Seahawks must stop the run, and that means Tatum Bell. He is supposed to be back this week, and he is the type of back that can break a long run (like Chester Taylor or Frank Gore). The Denver zone-blocking, single-cut system is something the Seahawks should have success against. The Seahawks struggle with plays like the power sweep, which Denver rarely runs. If Tatum Bell is patient and allowed to get to the outside, the Seattle safeties will suck up to the line and he will blow by everyone. Fortunately, Shanahan's offense is designed to run straight up the middle, where Seattle has been successful in stopping the run. The Seahawks should get a couple chances at fumble recoveries. A rookie quarterback making his first start and a fumble-prone running back returning after a month off is the perfect storm for putting the ball on the ground.

The Seahawks offense needs to keep it simple. Don't throw at Champ Bailey. Bailey closes on the receiver when the ball is in the air and makes great plays. He should be on Darrell Jackson, so it will be a big day for Deion Branch. However, if Jackson happens to be covered by Darrent Williams, then mark him down for a Reggie Wayne type game (see Week 8). The Seahawks really need to avoid turnovers and the game should be theirs. Hasselbeck was terrible last week in the first half, but otherwise the Seahawks played a fairly complete game.

Al Wilson should make it tough for Shaun Alexander to put up a game like last week, but Denver usually only puts seven in the box and four in coverage. That might change this week, which would help out Jerramy Stevens and Matt Hasselbeck. If they keep the safeties back, then Alexander will be ripping off seven and eight yard runs all day. Running the ball often will keep the defense fresh (something Mike Holmgren seems unaware of), which will keep the pass-rush effective late into the game. All of that about the Seahawks stopping the run up the middle goes out the window if the defense is constantly on the field.

Friday, December 1, 2006

The big news out of Denver this week is obviously Jay Cutler replacing Jake Plummer. That could be good or bad news for the Seahawks this week, but Cutler is going to be a star before too long. Cutler should struggle this week in his first start, which would help the Seahawks, but Shanahan might be right when he says Cutler gives the team the best chance to win now.

Lots was made at draft time of Jay Cutler's ability to make all of the NFL throws. Some questioned Matt Leinart's arm strength and Vince Young's delivery (as well as his ability to run an NFL-type offense). As of now, Matt Leinart is 1-6 as a starter and Vince Young is 4-4. Young has certainly been more effective with an equally poor team, but Leinart has looked pretty good for a rookie.

Jay Cutler should really be the best of the bunch. He starts with a much better team than either of the other two. Cutler also has a big advantage over the other two - Cutler played against top competition in the SEC, just like Leinart did at USC and Young did at Texas. However, Leinart and Young were surrounded by future NFL stars on their side of the ball as well. Cutler on the other hand played in a relatively poor program at Vanderbilt.

Jay Cutler is prepared to face adversity because of his collegiate experience. He is used to getting the ball to receivers that cannot get much seperation and moving around in the pocket when a lineman blows his assignment or gets beat. Leinart never got touched in college and had Reggie Bush, LenDale White, Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett, and Steve Smith as weapons - not to mention a full compliment of future NFL offensive linemen blocking for them. Cutler played under much different circumstances, which should prepare him for the adversity he will face in the NFL. As Seahawks fans, let's hope he is not ready after sitting on the bench for 12 weeks and it takes him awhile to hit his stride.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006

The Seahawks have an unusual situation that deserves to be addressed. Some may say this is conspiracy theory talk, but in reality it is pure fact: the NFL manipulates the schedule to give certain teams an advantage, period. For a few examples look no further than the New Orleans Saints and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints and Eagles are two teams the NFL wanted to rebound this season after Hurricane Katrina and Terrell Owens. The schedule is fixed, but the dates are flexible. Each team received a front-loaded schedule of easy games to allow the squads to come together and put up some early wins.

Some people were claiming the schedule-makers had it in for Philadelphia with three straight road games against the rest of the NFC East in Weeks 14 thru 16. However, that means each NFC East team had to travel to Philadelphia earlier in the season. The best thing a team can do is get wins in the beginning of the season. The difficulty of later games is harder to predict with injuries, but building a lead keeps a team relevant and makes it easier to stay focused. A tough start can cause a team to spiral downward. The Eagles played three of their first four games against Houston, San Francisco, and Green Bay - those teams picked 1st, 5th and 6th in the draft last season. The Eagles also got an extra day of rest after travelling out west to San Francisco by following it with a Monday Night game against Green Bay and then another home game after the short week.

What does this have to do with Seattle? The Seahawks are in a precarious position this week thanks to the NFL and those pesky schedule-makers. The Denver Broncos are coming off a week with three extra days of rest, while the Seahawks get one less day than normal. The Seahawks also must travel to Denver adding a travel day. True, the Broncos were on the road last week, but they played in Kansas City - the closest NFL city to Denver. The Seahawks preparation disadvantage is at least four-and-a-half days for an important matchup between two teams that both made it to their respective conference championship games last year. Crazy conspiracy theory? Maybe, but the circumstances certainly put the Seahawks at a big disadvantage.

And if you are looking for more evidence, take a good look at NFL sweetheart Peyton Manning and his Indianapolis Colts. What games are the biggest for the Colts? Jacksonville for the division and New England for the conference. The Colts were lucky enough to get Jacksonville at home after the Jaguars played the Steelers on Monday Night. A few weeks later, they got New England after the Patriots' Monday Night road game in Minnesota.

My point is not that the NFL tries to rig its schedule with every game, but anyone who thinks the schedule-makers do not take these things into account is a fool. The Seahawks-Broncos situation could just be a coincidence, and that is probably the case, but the league was aware of it and chose not to correct it. The NFL takes care of its darling teams when it can and the Seahawks are not among that group, at least not yet.
After a few weeks off, the power rankings are back following Week 11.

1. Chicago (9-2)
- With a two-game lead on the NFC, the top spot is safe for now. It will take a total collapse to lose the #1 seed, but it is possible with Grossman at the helm.
2. Seattle (7-4)
- With Hasselbeck and Alexander back, the Seahawks might be peaking at the right time. The defense will try to feast on Jay Cutler in his first NFL action. The rematch with San Francisco on Thursday Night and the Christmas Eve battle with San Diego will determine if this team gets a first-round bye in the playoffs. 11-5 will probably do it, but it would be nice to finish with 6 straight wins.
3. New Orleans (7-4)
- The Saints are flying high, but they close with San Francisco, at Dallas, Washington, at New York Giants, and Carolina. It looks like the Saints might be headed for a 10 win season.
4. Dallas (7-4)
- Tony Romo is on top of the world, but for how long? The Cowboys must win in New York this week with New Orleans and Atlanta up next. Fortunately they close with Philadelphia and Detroit.
5. Carolina (6-5)
- The Panthers are not great, but they will be in every game they play. The Week 17 game against New Orleans should decide the division.
6. New York Giants (6-5)
- A win this Sunday over the Cowboys and all is forgotten, a loss and the season might be forgotten. The poor coaching and bad play on this team is only trumped by the ridiculous hypocrisy.
7. Minnesota (5-6)
- The Vikings have lost four of five, but the schedule gets easier the rest of the way. An 8-8 record could mean a wildcard spot.
8. St. Louis (5-6)
- No Orlando Pace means a struggling offense, but the Rams are right there in the wildcard hunt. It could come down to a Week 17 game with the Vikings.
9. Atlanta (5-6)
- Classic Michael Vick collapsing down the stretch after a few good games. The Falcons look like an 8-8 team at best.
10. San Francisco (5-6)
- The 49ers looked good after beating the Seahawks, but followed it with a loss. The remaining schedule includes road games at New Orleans, Seattle, and Denver.
11. Washington (4-7)
- No Portis and Jason Campbell at quarterback, but the defense is getting healthy. The Redskins will spoil the party for at least a few playoff contenders down the stretch.
12. Green Bay (4-7)
- The Packers should be proud of their 4 wins, but 6-10 looks like the ceiling for the Pack. At least the team is playing with a lot of heart.
13. Philadelphia (5-6)
- The Eagles were only 5-5 with McNabb and an easy schedule. The McNabb-less Eagles with a tough schedule down the stretch might not win another game. Two more wins is less likely than zero.
14. Tampa Bay (3-8)
- A struggling team, but they always play hard.
15. Arizona (2-9)
- That signature win over the Lions was critical.
16. Detroit (2-9)
- Losses to Miami and Arizona make this choice easy.

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

It was nice to hear the resounding chorus of boos for Jerramy Stevens. Stevens came back with a nice touchdown catch, but he hurts the Seahawks as much as he helps them. Stevens seemed pretty happy after making that touchdown catch, but every starting tight end in the league should make that catch. Stevens is a unique physical threat, but he will always be an underachiever and a bit of a head case.

Jerramy Stevens will be a free agent at the end of the season, and the Seahawks should look elsewhere to fill his spot on the roster. Jerramy Stevens is a jerk, a loser, and an inconsistent performer. Mike Holmgren drafted Stevens and fellow low-character extraordinaire Koren Robinson with first round picks, but those guys are not the type of players Tim Ruskell likes. We're stuck with Stevens for the rest of this year, but let's hope we get someone better in 2007.

Daniel Graham (New England) and Eric Johnson (San Francisco) are both unrestricted free agents at the end of the year as well. Let's hope the Seahawks go for one or both of those high character players. Both of them made touchdown catches at least as nice as Stevens' in the past two weeks without dropping other catchable passes. Both guys are more consistent than Stevens, and they play hard and intelligently - not to mention that both excel at blocking as well as receiving.

Graham and Johnson have produced as well as Stevens so far in their careers in catches and yards as well. Stevens has amassed 116 catches for 1,297 yards and 14 touchdowns over his first 5 seasons in 66 games. Daniel Graham, also drafted in 2002, has 110 catches for 1,296 yards and 17 touchdowns in 58 games. He also has done a great job blocking and has two Super Bowl rings with the Patriots. Eric Johnson has been in the league one more season, but has missed two full seasons with injuries. In 55 career games over the four season he has played, the Yale alumnus has 190 grabs for 1,790 yards with 7 touchdowns for bad 49ers teams.

Stevens career highs were last year with 45 catches and 5 touchdowns. Graham had a 7-touchdown season in 2004, and Eric Johnson had an 82-catch season in 2004. After five years in the league, it is time to stop talking about Stevens potential and start looking at his actual production. The Seahawks need a quality tight end that can block and not drop catchable passes. It would also be nice to have a tight end that doesn't cost the team points with stupid penalties and dropped balls in the endzone. Stevens is a net negative.

If you do not understand why I think Stevens is such a piece of crap, then read the following rundown of Jerramy Stevens' escapades. Jerramy Stevens was charged with hitting a man with a baseball bat and breaking his jaw in June 1998, and then tested positive for marijuana while awaiting a court date. He spent three weeks in jail. So, maybe you want to give the 19 year-old a pass for some bad decisions, but fast-forward two years to June 2000, when Jerramy Stevens was accussed of drugging and raping a 19-year-old girl. The charges did not stick, but that type of behavior fits with Stevens subsequent actions.

Eleven months later, Jerramy Stevens was back at it again. In May 2001, Jerramy Stevens was charged with a hit-and-run after crashing his truck into a retirement home knocking a dresser onto the bed of a sleeping 92-year-old woman. Stevens was positively identified by a witness living above the woman. His truck was also found with front end damage and a flat tire, but Stevens denied knowing who was driving his truck. According to the witness, he fell down a couple of times while trying to get his truck out of the shrubs and used some books under his tires for leverage before successfully fleeing the scene. Remember, all of this took place in Seattle or Olympia before Stevens was drafted by Mike Holmgren and the Seattle Seahawks.

May and June are not exactly the best months for Stevens who managed to avoid incident in 2002 after being drafted, but did not do so well in 2003 when Stevens was charged with drunken driving in May and sentenced to five days in jail and 40 hours of community service in June. Stevens had six moving violations since July the year before (in 10 months). That gives Stevens a nice rap sheet of at least accusations of assault, drug use, rape, hit-and-run, and drunk driving. He is also an underachiever and inconsistent performer on the field. Is that the type of person and player the Seahawks should give a big free agent contract?

Monday, November 27, 2006

I was busy with family over the last week, so I guess this post is for the diehard fans looking for a last minute take on the game tonight.

On paper, this should be an easy game for the Seahawks, but you never know with the 2006 Seahawks. Matt Hasselbeck is probably not 100% (he said so to ESPN's Ed Werder during his pregame workout). The Green Bay Packers are going to bring a lot of pressure to force Hasselbeck to slide around in the pocket laterally to test his knee. Mike Holmgren can combat that by putting three and four receivers on the field. Spreading out the defense will either dissuade the Packers from blitzing, or it will give Hasselbeck single coverage for Deion Branch or Darrell Jackson. Jackson could easily add to his current total of 5 touchdowns of 40+ yards.

Jerramy Stevens could also have a big game if the Seahawks spread things out. The Packers are prone to giving up plays in the middle of the field to tight ends and to backs in the flat. Holmgren must spell Shaun Alexander with Maurice Morris and get Morris the ball a few times through the air. Hasselbeck needs safety valves in case someone comes unblocked. Shaun Alexander should improve from last week, but he is not at 100% yet and Morris was running well before Alexander returned.

The Seahawks need to attack Brett Favre early to see if his arm is well. Favre will try to force things if he is pressured and he may or may not be able to get the job done. It might be a great chance for the secondary to get well and the corners to finally get some interceptions. The defense has been getting ripped up by running backs, but Ahman Green has only 83 yards on 37 carries over the past two games. That is only 2.2 yards per carry, but he averaged 5.6 yards per carry with three 100-yard games and 3 rushing touchdowns in the three games prior. Green is the type of running back the Seahawks defense can stop. Noah Herron and Vernand Morency could pose more problems for Seattle if they get in the game.

Greg Jennings has been slowed by an ankle injury, but he is capable of making the big play. He has not done much since being hobbled, but he should be closer to 100% now. The Seahawks might be forced to make Favre to Jennings beat them because Donald Driver is more of a threat. Driver had 6 catches for 191 yards against the Vikings two weeks ago, including an 82-yard touchdown. Ken Hamlin and Jordan Babineaux need to help out Marcus Trufant on Driver, especially on third down. The Seahawks have tried using safety blitzes on third downs this year leaving the corners on an island, which has often lead to big receptions for first downs by the oppossing team.

By the way, the Seahawks are about to close out this five game stretch at 3-2 and be 7-4, which is right where they need to be. Seneca Wallace looks like an adequate backup that could have been even more successful if Mike Holmgren remembered he wasn't Matt Hasselbeck. Wallace gained some valuable experience and would be wise to sign up to be the Seahawks backup for years to come. With his height and other limitations, he will never be an unquestioned starter in the NFL, but he has a great future in Seattle in a reserve role.

Sunday, November 19, 2006

Sorry to anyone that has been checking here regularly the last couple of weeks. I was caught up with a lot of other stuff and took a brief hiatus.

The Seahawks take on the #2 team in the NFC West for the second straight week (the 49ers own the head-to-head tiebreaker over St. Louis for now). The 49ers have given up 41 points twice this year, but the defense is playing better as of late. I am not sure if they are really playing that well or the Vikings and Lions offenses just stalled out, but the 49ers only allowed a total of 18 points over the last two weeks (both wins for San Francisco). If Mike Holmgren continues his shoddy playcalling, then they might make it three good weeks in a row. Nate Burleson saved Holmgren last week.

Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck both might play, but it shouldn't be necessary and it would be nice to give those guys one more week to get healthy. To win this game, the Seahawks defense needs to avoid letting Frank Gore pull a Chester Taylor and break a long touchdown run. The defense has also been very prone to losing track of the running back in the flat on third down. Frank Gore is the 49ers leading receiver (with only 33 catches), so they need to keep tabs on him as a safety valve on third down. Frank Gore in space is not good for the Seahawks.

The offense needs to keep things simple. The 49ers defense is not anything special - they have just been playing hard lately. The Seahawks should have no trouble moving down the field just by running on first down and taking what the defense gives them. San Francisco will bite on the play-action if Seattle runs early and often, opening up things for Darrell Jackson and Deion Branch as the game progresses. If Holmgren insists on long, difficult pass plays on first down, followed by a short run up the middle on second down, the Seahawks will find themselves in third-and-long all day and end up punting or turning the ball over. Calling runs between the tackles (instead of the sweeps that go for negative yards) should be all it takes to win this game.

Thursday, November 2, 2006

Week Eight
1. Chicago (7-0)
- Should kill Miami this week before the their toughest stretch of the season. We already know the Bears are good, but we won't know how good until we see how they do over the subsequent three weeks.
2. Atlanta (5-2)
- Two weeks in a row for Vick and the passing game. He should beat up a pourous Detroit secondary this week to make it three. If he can keep it up against Baltimore and New Orleans in a few weeks Atlanta will be wearing the NFC South crown.
3. N.Y. Giants (5-2)
- The Seattle game should still be a concern for how bad this team can play (it happened against Carolina in the playoffs last year as well). Eli needs to avoid a second half slump like he had last year.
4. Dallas (4-3)
- Tony Romo might be the solution and the improved line play helps as well. Now if they could only figure out that the offense works best when T.O. gets the ball, especially near the endzone. The secondary is also playing much better without Pat Watkins in there.
5. New Orleans (5-2)
- One bad game against the Ravens or a frightening trend?
6. Seattle (4-3)
- Remaining opponnents are 26-38. Only Minnesota has an easier schedule (26-39), so maybe the defense can survive and get out of this slump.
7. Minnesota (4-3)
- Terrible, great, terrible. The easy schedule should help them to a wildcard spot.
8. St. Louis (4-3)
- Show-Me State Showdown this weekend. St. Louis needs a home win over the Cheifs if they want to challenge for the NFC West.
9. Carolina (4-4)
- Carolina is just average and now they are two games back of Atlanta and New Orleans in the loss column.
10. Green Bay (3-4)
- The Packers three wins come against the three one-win teams in the NFL with a combined record of 3-18.
11. Philadelphia (4-4)
- Beating T.O. was the Eagles Super Bowl. This mediocre team won't hold up against tougher competition after playing only .500 football during a schedule front-loaded with cupcake games.
12. Tampa Bay (2-5)
- The good news is that Tampa Bay played a tough schedule to start the season. The bad news is that it doesn't get any easier for the defending NFC South Champs.
13. Washington (2-5)
- Carlos Rogers and Shawn Springs are expected to play, which makes this team a lot better if they are both healthy.
14. San Francisco (2-5)
- It's never a good sign when your team has been down 41-0 in two of the first seven games.
15. Detroit (1-6)
- The Lions will likely drop Sunday's game to Atlanta, but then they get San Francisco, Arizona, and Miami - time to sort out who is really the worst team in the NFL.
16. Arizona (1-7)
- The bye week means they won't lose for the 8th straight time, at least not this week.

Tuesday, October 31, 2006

The Seahawks defense stinks, but we knew that before the Kansas City game, so it is a bit perplexing that everyone just now realized it. Here is what I said before last Sunday's game: "Larry Johnson should run all over a defense that cannot tackle and is prone to giving up the big play." I wish that didn't happen, but it was almost certain that it would.

The one thing that should give Seahawks fans hope is that this personnel group has played well before. Marcus Trufant has not been the shutdown corner the Seahawks expected when he was drafted, but he was a solid starter before this year. His play has been pathetic this season and the Seahawks would be wise not to offer him a contract extension if he continues to play at this level. He may not be playing the worst football of any cornerback in the NFL this season, but it is hard to find many struggling as much as he has to this point.

The Seahawks defensive unit is still very talented and is underachieving to an amazing degree. The group has the ability to play well, so they can turn things around. The question is how bad they want to and if they can live up to their talent. One key change might be to give Leroy Hill back the role he was successful in last year - rushing the passer - and dropping Julian Peterson back in coverage and allowing him to play more in run support. The Seahawks also need to stop playing zone coverage because they stink at it. Kelly Herndon and Marcus Trufant can play one-on-one coverage with safety help over the top.

On offense, the Seahawks are playing well given the injuries. To mock Dennis Green (something you gotta love) - Seneca Wallace is who we thought he was. As an inexperienced starter, he is going to throw some bad passes and make bad choices that result in interceptions if the DBs can hold onto the ball. At 5'10" with a line-drive delivery he is going to throw several batted balls each game that could be potential interceptions and those hardballs will also lead to an increased number of "drops" by the receivers. However, the offense continues to put up points and score enough to win the game as long as the defense can force a few punts and maybe get a turnover.

The Seahawks were not expected to win in Arrowhead (the Chargers lost their the week before), especially with the Chiefs playing better football. Kansas City has won 12 of their last 14 home games. Before the doomsday naysayers convince you the Seahawks season is over, ask yourself this question: With respect to hope for the future was the Seahawks performance without Hasselbeck and Alexander at Kansas City (4-3) more disconcerting than the Bears performance at Arizona (1-7)? Just because a team struggles one week does not mean that they cannot right the ship.

The Seahawks have struggled in more than one game, but then again so have the Bears. They barely held on to beat the Vikings with a fourth quarter touchdown. Indianapolis almost dropped a game to the hapless Titans. The one thing that appears certain is that the Seahawks will need to win shootouts until the defense gets back on track (or the rest of the year if it never does). The Raiders offense is so pathetic that the Seahawks should win as long as Seneca Wallace does not throw two interceptions returned for touchdowns (see: Ben Roethlisberger).

The Seahawks might lose to St. Louis in Week 10, but Shaun Alexander could make the difference. San Francisco and Green Bay should be pushovers assuming Matt Hasselbeck is back as scheduled. There is a good chance the Seahawks will get Hasselbeck and Alexander back with Jerramy Stevens, Darrell Jackson, and Deion Branch. That offense is capable of winning shootouts if necessary. The Colts defense cannot stop anyone, but that squad is 7-0.

Before everyone gets too excited, the Seahawks did dominate the New York Giants for three quarters (42-3) and everyone is now touting them as a favorite to get to the Super Bowl. The Seahawks are 4-3 and the Giants are 5-2 with the Seahawks holding the tiebreaker if the teams even up their records. The Giants still have Chicago, Dallas, and New Orleans left at home as well as road games at Jacksonville and Carolina. The Seahawks dropped the game against Kansas City, but they should still win three of the next four and be right where they need to be at 7-4. The Seahawks could still beat St. Louis and be 8-3 if everything goes right.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

Seneca Wallace and Maurice Morris are not Matt Hasselbeck and Shaun Alexander. Mike Holmgren needs to realize that if the Seahawks are going to have a chance this week. His game-planning and play-calling has been pretty bad this year. If he asks Seneca Wallace to be Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks will get dominated.

Seneca Wallace is similar to Tony Romo in the sense that he gives a struggling offensive line a mobile quarterback that can avoid sacks and extend the play. However, Wallace appears to choose his receiver before the snap. Ty Law is an expert at baiting quarterbacks into throwing interceptions by making the receiver appear open. Hopefully Wallace has seen that on tape and can avoid those mistakes. Holmgren needs to get Morris the ball on first down to set up the pass, rather than throwing incompletions on first, running for two yards on second, and then putting Wallace in third-and-long situations.

An injured Damon Huard and suspect offensive line gives the Seahawks defense some hope, but Larry Johnson should run all over a defense that cannot tackle and is prone to giving up the big play (at least so far this year). The Seahawks can win this game, but it will be an uphill battle. However, if they do, then it is reasonable to expect Seattle to win three or four of the next four games. That would put the Seahawks at 8-3 or 9-2 with Hasselbeck and Alexander back from injury. Let's not give up on this season just yet. Even with a loss, 7-4 is not bad at all.
Arizona at Green Bay - Green Bay
Atlanta at Cincinnati - Atlanta
Baltimore at New Orleans - New Orleans
Houston at Tennessee - Houston
Jacksonville at Philadelphia - Jacksonville
Seattle at Kansas City - Seattle
San Francisco at Chicago - Chicago
Tampa Bay at N.Y. Giants - N.Y. Giants
St. Louis at San Diego - San Diego
Indianapolis at Denver - Denver
N.Y. Jets at Cleveland - N.Y. Jets
Pittsburgh at Oakland - Oakland
Dallas at Carolina - Dallas
New England at Minnesota - New England

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Week Seven
1. Chicago (6-0)
- Still undefeated and the first test without Mike Brown is against the 49ers. A loss this week or next (home vs. Miami) would be cause for concern before their toughest stretch of the season.
2. New Orleans (5-1)
- Why not?
3. Minnesota (4-2)
- The team that beat Seattle is dangerous, the team that needed a meltdown by Detroit a week earlier is in trouble.
4. N.Y. Giants (4-2)
- Eli Manning is lucky Plaxico Burress can go up and snatch bad passes, but can he lead this team consistently. Three straight home games now doesn't hurt.
5. Seattle (4-2)
- Can Seneca Wallace weather the storm? What about the secondary?
6. St. Louis (4-2)
- The Rams have to be excited about the Seahawks struggles, but can they win tough games on the road.
7. Atlanta (4-2)
- The defense looked bad against Pittsburgh and no Abraham makes it even worse. If Vick can pass consistently, then this team is very good. Vick has had good games before only to implode the next week.
8. Carolina (4-3)
- This team is pedestrian, and is only +12 points in five games with Steve Smith.
9. Philadelphia (4-3)
- McNabb starting to show how overrated he is after playing an easy schedule early.
10. Dallas (3-3)
- The Cowboys could go 3-7 or 7-3 the rest of the way with Tony Romo, but they were guaranteed to go 5-5 with Bledsoe.
11. Tampa Bay (2-4)
- Wins over Cincy and Philly have the Bucs feeling good.
12. Green Bay (2-4)
- A healthy Ahman Green makes this one of the better bad teams.
13. Washington (2-5)
- Losing two of the better starting corners hurts the defense causing an offense that needs to run the ball to play from behind and pass.
14. San Francisco (2-4)
- In an actual rebuilding year (unlike the Cardinals).
15. Detroit (1-6)
- No Shaun Rogers means even the Jets can run on them, but the offense will still put up points.
16. Arizona (1-6)
- They lost to the Raiders.

Tuesday, October 24, 2006

The Seahawks are looking at the next 3 to 5 games without Matt Hasselbeck. Back when Alexander first got injured, I predicted a return in November, and later if the Seahawks didn't need him yet. The injury to Hasselbeck and a loss to Minnesota means the Seahawks need him as soon as he is healthy - no time for being cautious. It looks like that means Alexander will be back for the first game in November (Monday Night vs. Oakland - November 6th).

Taking the same approach with Hasselbeck as Alexander, we are really looking at a five week timeframe. There is an outside chance Hasselbeck could be back for an important home game against St. Louis, but that seems unlikely. The next five features two tough games against the Missouri teams and three cupcakes with Oakland, San Francisco, and Green Bay. The onus is on Seneca Wallace to go 3-2 in that stretch, and he should be helped by the return of Shaun Alexander. The Chiefs and Rams are both beatable, but those will be uphill climbs without Hasselbeck. However, a 7-4 record after 11 games is not a bad start to the season. Only a handful of NFC teams will have 4 or less losses at that point in the season.

Given the upcoming schedule for St. Louis, it is reasonable to think the Seahawks might come out the other end of this injury trouble in first in the NFC West. That would be a big boost for a team with a healthy Hasselbeck and Alexander for the home stretch. If you spot the Seahawks the second games against San Francisco and Arizona, then you are already at 9 wins. St. Louis looks like a 9 win team at best given their remaining schedule. So, all things considered, the Seahawks should be in pretty good shape as long as Seneca Wallace can lead this team to a 3-2 record over the next five weeks. Hasselbeck will want to play in the Monday Night game against the Packers, so my guess is Seneca will only be in there for the next four weeks.

Wallace will likely struggle at Arrowhead next week, but if he can remain confident, he should be able to pull out wins at home against Oakland and maybe the Sacramento product will feel right at home with a trip to the Bay Area to face the 49ers. His mobility could even help against the quick St. Louis defense. If the fans manage to stay in the game, the Seahawks can navigate this tough stretch and be in pretty good position even if they go 2-2 with Wallace as a starter, assuming Hasselbeck can lead the team to victory over Green Bay. If Hasselbeck is not ready, then Wallace becomes the game five starter and should be able to handle Green Bay. Joey Harrington managed to throw for 414 yards on that secondary.

Sunday, October 22, 2006

Before we get to why the Seahawks stunk it up on Sunday (and believe that is coming) - let's address the 12th Man. If you were at the game and your voice is not hoarse, sell your tickets for the rest of the year. The 12th Man gave up on the Seahawks after Hasselbeck went down. The fans were not terrible, but they were average at best. I thought I was at Qwest Field - Home of the influential 12th Man. Apparently not. If it is third down, then stand up and yell or just give away your tickets. After today, I am not sure if the Seahawks play at Qwest Field or in the Staples Center. Blase at best.
Carolina at Cincinnati - Carolina
Detroit at N.Y. Jets - New York Jets
Green Bay at Miami - Green Bay
Jacksonville at Houston - Jacksonville
New England at Buffalo - New England
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay - Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh at Atlanta - Pittsburgh
San Diego at Kansas City - San Diego
Denver at Cleveland - Denver
Arizona at Oakland - Arizona
Minnesota at Seattle - Seattle
Washington at Indianapolis - Indianapolis
N.Y. Giants at Dallas - Dallas

Friday, October 20, 2006

Steve Hutchinson makes his return to Seattle after the much discussed offseason contract situation. He will no doubt draws boos from the crowd at Qwest waiting to feast on some football after a nearly one-month football famine in Seattle. The Seahawks will be taking the field at home for the first time since the Giants game on September 24th. The Seahawks have not played much football since the third quarter of that game, taking the week off against the Bears, the bye week, and then a dreadful first half in St. Louis. Fortunately, the Seahawks turned things around in the second half against the Rams, and need to do more of the same to beat Minnesota.

The Seahawks offense will have its hands full with a Vikings defense that has played surprisingly well, especially against the run. It was no coincidence last week that the offense was successful in the second half when Holmgren finally committed to running the ball on first down. Even if Maurice Morris is not especially effective, he needs to get the rock and keep the defense honest. A healthy Jerramy Stevens should help draw the attention of the Minnesota linebackers.

The Seahawks should have a lot of success with Deion Branch, Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson, and Jerramy Stevens in the lineup with Mack Strong and Maurice Morris in the backfield. That package becomes very scary once Shaun Alexander returns. For the time being, Mike Holmgren needs to stop being an idiot and run the ball anyway. If the ball-hawking Vikings secondary can key on the pass, then Hasselbeck with throw costly interceptions. Although it goes against what Holgmren likes to do, he needs to use the run to set up the pass against the Vikings.

The Seahawks defense will be a lot better if the Seahawks get on the board early. The Vikings have trouble playing from behind. The Vikings are not as bad as the Falcons, but they struggle for the same reasons. The two Brads (Childress and Johnson) would like to run the ball as much as possible. Minnesota is not capable of winning shootouts or putting up a lot of points to catch up. Their offensive is successful when ultra conservative with Johnson at the helm.

It makes sense for the Seahawks to commit Michael Boulware in run support this week. They did that the past few weeks when facing teams with formidable passing attacks, which was a mistake. Marcus Trufant appears to be very average at best right now, so it makes sense for Ken Hamlin to give him help over the top if he is covering Troy Williamson. Kelly Herndon should be able to cover the other Vikings receivers. Speed is not a factor for Travis Taylor and Marcus Robinson. Listen up Holmgren and Company - the key to effective pass defense is to not let Williamson get deep. The Vikings will only go three-wide in obvious passing situations, so Boulware can drop back in coverage as well to help out the rest of the secondary in those situations.

Steve Hutchinson will help Chester Taylor rack up yards on the ground, which is why getting a lead is so important. Until the Seahawks can force the Vikings to pass, bringing Boulware up in the box might be necessary to stop the run. Fortunately for Seahawks fans, the Seahawks will not want to let Hutchinson be the reason the Vikings win, so Holmgren will try to put the onus on Brad Johnson to carry the load.

A win this week puts the Seahawks in a great position to make a run at home-field advantage through the playoffs, even with the loss in Chicago. The Seahawks have a great shot to win the next five after this week. That stretch includes road games at the struggling Chiefs and the woeful 49ers, as well as Monday Night home games against the Raiders and Packers. The toughest game might be the rematch against the Rams. This time it is in Seattle and Shaun Alexander should be back by then. Anything can happen, but it is not a stretch to think Seattle might be 10-1 at that point.

The Bears have a bye week, then San Francisco and Miami at home. However, they then go on the road three straight weeks - at the Giants, Jets, and Patriots. A Bears defense without Mike Brown and maybe no Ricky Manning, Jr. either could easily lose two of those three games putting the Bears at 9-2. That stretch is followed by a rematch with division rival Minnesota and then a trip to St. Louis. That gives the Seahawks a chance to regain control of the NFC, but they have to do it by then because the Bears close with Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Green Bay. If the Seahawks can win at least one of the two games against Denver and San Diego, then they have a chance to finish the regular season atop the NFC.
The Love Boat rolls into Elliot Bay this Sunday, and Brad Childress has assumed the roll of Captain Stubing. The Vikings are coming off a bye week, but this year there have been no reports of lewd acts or indecent behavior - at least since the season began. Former Seahawk Koren Robinson was suspended for one-year by the NFL this past week for his high-speed, drunken effort to make it back to Viking Training Camp by curfew. Within a days of the Vikings cutting Robinson, Dwight Smith (another NFL problem child with several gun charges) was charged with indecent conduct after apparently having sex in a stairwell outside a night club. Smith was disciplined and sat out the opener at Washington.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Week Six
1. Chicago (6-0)
- Survived a scare, but lost Mike Brown for the season. The defense could become much weaker after losing a pro bowl safety, especially while Ricky Manning, Jr. serves a suspension. They might drop the NFC lead by Thanksgiving Weekend, but could regain it with Seattle facing Denver and San Diego in the final 5 weeks. The Bears close with Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Green Bay.
2. Seattle (4-1)
- Mike Holmgren has some serious game-planning issues, but the team is on an emotional high and should be able to run off six wins in a row if they can get by the Vikings this weekend.
3. New Orleans (5-1)
- A 3-point loss at Carolina from being undefeated. No hurricanes in New Orleans, just a strong Brees.
4. St. Louis (4-2)
- Tough loss at Seattle, but this team proved they are for real. They need to avoid a big collapse after an emotional loss, but the bye week should help. However, three of their next four are on the road against San Diego, Carolina, and Seattle.
5. Carolina (4-2)
- The Panthers have scored 109 points and allowed 111. Even their four wins with Steve Smith were by a combined 15 points. They are living on the edge and could easily drop the next two games. The defense is struggling.
6. N.Y. Giants (3-2)
- Big win against Atlanta. The division is up for grabs on Monday night.
7. Dallas (3-2)
- Winning against the Giants on Monday Night and at Carolina next Sunday would put them in the driver's seat for the NFC East. I recommend throwing catchable balls in the direction of "the player."
8. Atlanta (3-2)
- Vick can't pass, it is that simple. It hurts when guys can't catch either.
9. Philadelphia (4-2)
- The Eagles had the easiest schedule to start the year, but finish with one of the toughest. It might be tough for them to win much more than 8 games this year.
10. Minnesota (3-2)
- Minnesota is not very good, but has found a way to win. They head to Seattle this week and host New England next week. However, five of their final nine games are against teams with only 1 win so far, and that does not include the game against two-win San Francisco.
11. San Francisco (2-3)
- Three winable games left on the schedule, but 5 wins is probably the ceiling this year.
12. Green Bay (1-4)
- A bye week and trips to Miami and Buffalo with a home game against Arizona sandwiched inbetween could help this team get on track. This team could even win seven games this year, but they could also finish with only four wins.
13. Tampa Bay (1-5)
- One of the worst teams in the NFC beat one of the best in the AFC - gotta love the NFL. Gruden can keep this team in games with Gradkowski, but the defense is struggling and so is the offensive line.
14. Detroit (1-5)
- The Lions finally won. The talent is there, but three offensive lineman are out and Shaun Rogers (the best player on the team) has been suspended for four games. They will only be successful if Jon Kitna and Mike Martz can win shootouts. The next six weeks feature four very winable games and a bye week.
15. Washington (2-4)
- Only Arizona saved them from the bottom spot. The Redskins are without both starting corners this week against the Colts. Washington has a lot of tough games left on the schedule, so it looks like last place in the NFC East is likely.
16. Arizona (1-5)
- Arizona knows how to lose, but Matt Leinart doesn't. They could easily win the next two at Oakland and Green Bay heading into the bye week, but they cannot beat good teams if they cannot run the ball.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

It is important for the Seahawks to bounce back this week. Nothing will be a surprise against the Rams, at least it shouldn't be. The Seahawks should employ the gameplan that they used for the first three quarters against the Giants (which is the last time this team actually played football).

The concern for the Seahawks will be Marc Bulger, Torry Holt, and Company when the Rams have the ball. The front seven needs to be able to stop the run and get pressure on the passer, so the safeties can help a struggling secondary. Getting Babineaux back and having a healthy Boulware will also help, but Marcus Trufant needs to bounce back in a big way. Steven Jackson should eat up yards, but the defense needs to bend and not break. Stops on third-and-short will be critical, but the Seahawks can't let Bulger beat them deep. Torry "Big Game" Holt might live up to his name anyway.

When the Seahawks have the ball, it will be important to commit to running the ball to keep the defense honest. The Rams secondary is not that good (and has injuries), but they can drop men in coverage if they don't have to respect the run and Matt Hasselbeck will make mistakes. Nate Burleson could have a big day with injuries to corners Fahkir Brown and Travis Fisher. Jerramy Stevens is inactive, so he will not make an impact this week. The offensive line and Matt Hasselbeck need to work together to minimize sacks. Leonard Little and La'Roi Glover could cause headaches all day, so Hasselbeck needs to get rid of the ball and know that throwing it away is ok. He just needs to avoid forcing it and making debilatating mistakes.

The Rams are a lot better this year and it starts on defense. Arizona did not make any notable moves except adding Edgerrin James, but St. Louis did. La'Roi Glover, Will Witherspoon, Corey Chavous, and Tye Hill all help this team from a year ago. This week will be a struggle with Fahkir Brown and Travis Fisher both dinged up, but the Rams defense is not the joke that it was a year ago.

If the Seahawks stick to a solid gameplan, there is no reason this game won't look like the Giants game. However, St. Louis should put up some decent numbers on offense, or at least get close enough for Jeff Wilkins to kick a bunch of field goals.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

Buffalo at Detroit - Detroit
Carolina at Baltimore - Baltimore
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay - Cincinnati
Houston at Dallas - Dallas
N.Y. Giants at Atlanta - New York Giants
Philadelphia at New Orleans - New Orleans
Seattle at St. Louis - Seattle
Tennessee at Washington - Washington
Kansas City at Pittsburgh - Kansas City
Miami at N.Y. Jets - New York Jets
San Diego at San Francisco - San Diego
Oakland at Denver - Denver
Chicago at Arizona - Chicago

Friday, October 13, 2006

Week Five
1. Chicago (5-0)
- Best team in the NFL right now.
2. Seattle (3-1)
- Is St. Louis catching up?
3. New Orleans (4-1)
- Better than anyone could have expected - this team is for real.
4. St. Louis (4-1)
- A very unimpressive start, but wins are all that matter. The best is yet to come.
5. Philadelphia (4-1)
- Can McNabb hold this team together against tough competition? The injuries are mounting.
6. Carolina (3-2)
- Not as great as everyone thought, but better than most.
7. Atlanta (3-1)
- Big test against the Giants. Vick should blow it.
8. N.Y. Giants (2-2)
- Loses are to Seattle and Indianapolis, so their record is as expected.
9. Dallas (2-2)
- Pat Watkins and Drew Bledsoe lost the game for them last week.
10. Minnesota (3-2)
- Last week was a gift from Kitna. Minnesota is not that good.
11. Washington (2-3)
- Shawn Springs is nearing his return, but this team has problems on offense.
12. San Francisco (2-3)
- At least they can beat other terrible teams.
13. Green Bay (1-4)
- Favre looked good last week until the final play.
14. Arizona (1-4)
- Leinart is a plus, but losing Fitz hurts an already struggling team. Edge a difference maker? Seriously, how did people think that he was going to run behind this line?
15. Detroit (0-5)
- A talented team that can always find a way to lose.
16. Tampa Bay (0-5)
- Gradkowski looks good, but this team has too many problems.

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

The content on this blog has been lacking lately, mainly due to the bye week, the Seahawks getting a week off, and the fact that it was hard to get up the initiative to write about the Chicago game. However, it is necessary to address the problems from Week Four Before looking ahead to this weekend and the Rams. Before painting too bleak a picture, the Seahawks only have one loss (only the Bears and Colts are undefeated) and it was on the road against the best team in the NFL right now.

The loss of Shaun Alexander had more of an impact than many people are realizing. The concern for the rest of the season is that the breakdowns in the Chicago game started from the top down. Mike Holmgren, Matt Hasselbeck, and Marcus Trufant deserve the lion's share of the blame for the terrible loss. The good news is that those guys should bounce back to play and coach at a high level. If they do not, then this team might not even go to the playoffs.

On offense, Holmgren and Hasselbeck appeared at a loss when the oppossing defense was no longer focusing their attention on Alexander. If Jeremy Shockey played for the Seahawks, it would be known by everyone that the Seahawks not only got outplayed, but also outcoached. Holmgren's play-calling was nothing short of pathetic. He showed his tendency to pass on first-down. When Holmgren does this and the pass is incomplete, it leaves the Seahawks with a second-and-ten, and then Holgrem inevitably calls a run straight up the middle into the teeth of the defense for a couple of yards. That leaves the team with third-and-long, which is always difficult, especially against a good defense.

The play-calling was especially poor inside the ten yard line. In the first quarter, the Seahawks marched down the field and had a first-and-goal from the 7-yard-line. Holmgren called a pass, instead of letting Maurice Morris at least get a couple of yards. He did call a run on second down, but that play should have been run on first down. Second-and-goal from the 5-yard-line is a great situation to keep the defense guessing, but third-and-goal from the 5-yard-line means a pass. Holmgren did not give Morris or the offensive line a chance to get into the endzone. In the second quarter, Holmgren called three straight pass plays from the 6-yard-line (all incomplete). Terrible! He also out-thought himself on a third-and-six and a third-and-ten when he ran draws with Mack Strong. That does not work against the Bears.

Matt Hasselbeck played a terrible game as well. He took a sack late in the first quarter on the Seahawks third possession. After that he lost confidence in the offensive line and played scared. He rushed throws, panicked, and made bad decisions the rest of the game. We can blame the offensive line all we want, but it was more Hasselbeck than anyone else. The interceptions were terrible and he just made some bad throws. Darrell Jackson did drop two catchable balls and Nate Burleson another, but they were not easy catches by any means because of poor placement on the passes. When asked to shoulder the load without Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasselbeck failed. Those criticising K.C. Joyner's article on Matt Hasselbeck's decision-making owe Joyner an apology.

Walter Jones did get beat for two sacks, but one of them was 100% Matt Hasselbeck's fault. Jones had pushed Alex Brown to the outside and all Hasselbeck had to do was step up in the pocket, but he ran backwards into Brown for some reason. However, Jones was struggling all game. The worst play might have been when he was blocking for Maurice Morris out in the flat. He ran completely laterally and Morris outran him. People want to blame Morris for not following his block, but if he had he would have run straight out of bounds. Jones needed to get down the field some or the play was doomed. If he would have moved vertically a little bit, Morris could have followed him. Jones also appeared to give up in the second half and was clearly not giving a full effort. That is inexcusable, especially for an All-Pro.

Starting the game without Jordan Babineaux and then losing Michael Boulware with a concussion didn't help, but the secondary was in trouble from the start. The defensive line did not get much pressure, but the Seahawks coverage was absolutely terrible and Marcus Trufant was the biggest disappointment. He did not even play well enough to start for Wilson High School. It would almost be comforting to hear that he had the flu or some undisclosed injury because his play was horrendous. Oliver Celestin can be blamed for most of the plays that made Kelly Herndon look bad, but that is understandable for a guy that barely made the team. Herndon requires help over the top, especially against a fast receiver, and Celstin did not give it to him.

Outside of Trufant, the biggest problem on defense was the game plan. Remember what the Seahawks did against Tiki Barber and the Giants? Stop the run with the front-seven and drop the safeties in coverage. That might have worked against Chicago as well, but the Seahawks bit on every play-fake, committed safeties to stopping the run, and got burned in the secondary because of it. Stick with what works and change it only if something isn't working. The Seahawks got outcoached on both sides of the ball in a major way.

The Seahawks got humbled and they needed it. The coaching staff underestimated Rex Grossman and the Chicago offense. They need to avoid making the same mistake with the St. Louis defense. If the Seahawks do not commit to running the ball against the Rams and dropping safeties in coverage on defense to help defend the pass, then a loss in St. Louis is almost guaranteed.

Sunday, October 8, 2006

Buffalo at Chicago - Chicago
Cleveland at Carolina - Carolina
Detroit at Minnesota - Detroit
Miami at New England - New England
St. Louis at Green Bay - St. Louis
Tampa Bay at New Orleans - New Orleans
Tennessee at Indianapolis - Indianapolis
Washington at N.Y. Giants - Washington
Kansas City at Arizona - Kansas City
N.Y. Jets at Jacksonville - Jacksonville
Oakland at San Francisco - San Francisco
Dallas at Philadelphia - Dallas
Pittsburgh at San Diego - San Diego
Baltimore at Denver - Denver

Washington and Dallas are on the road in NFC East showdowns against good teams. I think they both pull out tough wins anyway. I like Detroit to hand Minnesota their third straight loss.

Friday, October 6, 2006

Week Four
1. Chicago (4-0)
- This offense is for real. Dick Jauron and Buffalo could surprise them in a let down game, but I wouldn't bet on it.
2. Seattle (3-1)
- Let's hope that last week was an aberration, especially for Matt Hasselbeck and Marcus Trufant.
3. Dallas (2-1)
- T.O. is drawing attention and Terry Glenn is getting open because of it. Offense and defense are both on a roll.
4. Washington (2-2)
- The defense needs to improve, but getting Shawn Springs back will help.
5. New Orleans (3-1)
- Sean Payton, Drew Brees, and Reggie Bush have this offense in good shape, and Marques Colston is making a difference as well. The addition of Scott Fujita and Mark Simoneau seems to have solved the linebacker problems from a year ago.
6. St. Louis (3-1)
- St. Louis is 3-1, and still has not lived up to potential yet. The pieces are there for a very good season if they can keep it going.
7. Atlanta (3-1)
- The win over Arizona doesn't mean much, and Michael Vick has still only thrown 1 touchdown to a wide receiver.
8. Carolina (2-2)
- The Panthers are 2-0 with Steve Smith, but it has more to do with the competition and a big play by De'Shaun Foster.
9. Minnesota (2-2)
- Two straight losses, could quickly become three against Detroit.
10. Philadelphia (3-1)
- We still don't know much after wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers.
11. N.Y. Giants (1-2)
- The Giants look headed towards a 1-3 start, which means lots of distractions and more unravelling.
12. Detroit (0-4)
- This team could be good if the offense and defense would show up at the same time.
13. Arizona (1-3)
- Same old Cardinals, but Leinart will help if he can manage less than two turnovers per game.
14. Green Bay (1-3)
- Aaron Rogers first start is coming soon.
15. San Francisco (1-3)
- 41-0. Enough said.
16. Tampa Bay (0-4)
- This might be the worst team in the NFL in several years. Injuries at their weakest positions have really hurt.

Thursday, September 28, 2006

The Seahawks need to be concerned about the offensive line, but it is not like they shouldn't have seen this coming. The current state of affairs is not a disaster, but things would be a lot better if the Seahawks would have approached things differently.

Back before training camp, several people were calling for the Seahawks to move Sean Locklear to left guard and put Tom Ashworth (or Ray Willis) at right tackle. When the Seahawks signed Tom Ashworth, they told Ashworth, according to his agent, that they thought he would be one of their five best linemen and might move Locklear to make room for him in the starting line-up. It is usually best to take what an agent says with a grain of salt, but that makes sense given the Seahawks signed Ashworth to a 5-year, $13 million deal, including $4.5 million in salary and bonuses for 2006.

From an outside perspective, it made sense to move Locklear to keep the injury-prone Floyd Womack out of the starting line-up, and to create a plan that would maximize continuity along the offensive line. Things to this point have played out exactly as one would have expected, and it looks like the Seahawks made some mistakes that could have been avoided. The concern back before the season was the durability of the starting interior lineman with the oft-injured Womack and the ancient Robbie Tobeck and Chris Gray filling the middle.

As it happened, Tobeck and Womack missed time in training camp with injuries. And Womack and Gray have already suffered injuries after only 3 regular season games. Now second-year player Chris Spencer and rookie fourth-rounder Rob Sims will join Tobeck on the interior. What happens if Tobeck gets injured now? It is a little late to move Locklear to guard (who is a little banged up himself) and then plug in Ashworth at right tackle. Continuity is King along the offensive line.

Sean Locklear excelled at run-blocking and mauling oppenents last year at right tackle, and those skills translate nicely to playing guard. Locklear is somewhat short for a tackle at 6'4" and has struggled in pass protection to this point in the season. With Locklear lining up next to Walter Jones, the Seahawks would have still had the dominant run-blocking leftside that worked so well last year. The running game would not have suffered as much as it has through the first three games.

Let's take a look at how things would have worked under the proposed plan. The Seahawks would have started with the following line:
LT Walter Jones - LG Sean Locklear - C Robbie Tobeck - RG Chris Gray - RT Tom Ashworth

It is reasonable to think the only injury would have been to Chris Gray. That would have been easily taken care of by plugging in Chris Spencer at right guard. So, the Seahawks would have made only one change along the offensive line. Womack would have been available to back-up Jones and Locklear on the left side. An injury to Tobeck would mean Spencer slides over to center and Sims comes in at right guard. As things have played out, the Seahawks have already made two changes on the interior of the line, and they are really without a good back-up for any of the offensive line positions except right tackle.

It's an unfortunate situation, and injuries happen, but the Seahawks should have seen this coming and planned accordingly.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Picking the Winners
Arizona at Atlanta - Atlanta (-7)
Dallas at Tennessee - Dallas (-9.5)
Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets - Indianapolis (-9)
Miami at Houston - Miami (-3.5)
Minnesota at Buffalo - Minnesota (+1)
New Orleans at Carolina - New Orleans (+7.5)
San Diego at Baltimore - San Diego (-2.5)
San Francisco at Kansas City - Kansas City (-7)
Detroit at St. Louis - St. Louis (-5.5)
Cleveland at Oakland - Oakland (+2.5)
Jacksonville at Washington - Jacksonville (-3)
New England at Cincinnati - New England (+6)
Seattle at Chicago - Seattle (+3.5)
Green Bay at Philadelphia - Philadelphia (-11)

Here are my early picks for Week 4. The betting lines are included for reference, but I am just trying to pick who is going to win the game. The Titans, Jets, Texans, Ravens, Raiders, and Redskins are all home underdogs. As a rule, it is not good to bet on a road favorite to cover the spread.
Week Three
1. Seattle (3-0)
- Did I read that correctly? 42-3. In the last 52-weeks the Seahawks only losses are the controversial Super Bowl and a meaningless game against Green Bay.
2. Chicago (3-0)
- Rex Grossman and the Bears get a big test against Seattle.
3. New Orleans (3-0)
- The offensive line is better than anyone thought. The secondary is good and they get half of their games in a charged Superdome. They already beat Atlanta. Tampa Bay and Carolina don't exactly look good.
4. Dallas (1-1)
- Look for Dallas to rattle off three straight wins.
5. Minnesota (2-1)
- Impressive effort against Chicago.
6. Washington (1-2)
- Jacksonville will be a better measuring stick than Houston. The health of Springs and Portis is crucial to success.
7. Atlanta (2-1)
- The option looks like it was a two-week wonder. Vick looked like the guy we saw collapse down the stretch last year.
8. Philadelphia (2-1)
- Going 2-1 is not that impressive when it only includes wins over the 49ers and Texans.
9. Carolina (1-2)
- The Panthers looked about as good as the Bucs. That's not good.
10. N.Y. Giants (1-2)
- The Giants are talented, but the team is unravelling from the top down. The bye week couldn't have come at a better time.
11. St. Louis (2-1)
- Is a win over the Cardinals impressive?
12. Arizona (1-2)
- Kurt Warner should go back to bagging groceries.
13. San Francisco (1-2)
- Losing Vernon Davis and getting Gore banged up doesn't help a bad team get any better.
14. Green Bay (1-2)
- A win in Philadelphia would be impressive.
15. Detroit (0-3)
- What happened after Week One?
16. Tampa Bay (0-3)
- Does losing Chris Simms hurt this team that much? Who will be the starter next year...Brady Quinn?
The latest in the Terrell Owens media coverage has me saying enough is enough, and I am not talking about Terrell Owens, but rather the lack of journalistic integrity that has been on display for over a year now. We might not ever get to the bottom of whether or not Terrell Owens attempted suicide. Maybe his story is true or maybe he and his publicist are trying to spin this, but either way, this should be the last straw and cause a lot of journalists to take a look in the mirror.

When Terrell Owens blew up in San Francisco, he did not behave well at all. His actions were deplorable and he threw his quarterback and his coach under the bus. What happened was not especially different from what goes on from time to time when teams are struggling (see: Jeremey Shockey and Kellen Winslow). It doesn't make his actions acceptable, but the media latched onto the story and exacerbated it. In hindsight, one thing that goes unnoticed is that Owens was right about Garcia and Mooch. T.O. clearly does not deal with the media well and allows them to bully him into saying things he shouldn't in interviews. He needs to learn to say "no comment" and it seemed like he finally had this season.

After Owens arrived in Philadelphia, he was under a microscope. You could practically see the reporters salivating when Philadelphia struggled. McNabb and Owens even mocked the media spotlight by pretending to have an argument during a win. Later, McNabb had thrown a couple of interceptions and Owens was in his face on the sideline. According to both players, Owens was telling McNabb to keep his head up, they were not out of the game, and all they could do was wait until they got the ball back and go out there to make plays. The media seemed more dissappointed that it wasn't a controversy than when they found out as children that Santa Claus was not real.

When Owens made a heroic recovery to come back and play in the Super Bowl, the story was that he was doing it for personal glory. Owens was upset because the team would not give him any guarantees if he were to get re-injured in the Super Bowl. Donovan McNabb let down the Eagles by partying it up in Jacksonville and then lost his composure and became tired and could not even call plays on the final drive in the big game. That story came out from Freddy Mitchell, not Terrell Owens.

The media somehow managed to find a way to rip into T.O. about the Super Bowl instead of Donovan McNabb. I am not sure how that even happens. One guy was playing through an injury and putting it all on the line for the team, while the other let his team down because he was out partying. It is easy to see why Terrell Owens felt like the media was making him a villain.

Terrell Owens did not even hold out in Philadelphia in 2005. He complained about his contract and wanted a new one. He reported to camp and said that they would talk again about his contract after the Eagles won the 2006 Super Bowl. It goes unnoticed that Brian Westbrook was actually holding out during that training camp and McNabb came forward in support of Westbrook and said the Eagles should pay him. By coming out in favor of Westbrook and not Owens, you can understand how Owens felt slighted.

McNabb played terribly in 2005 and was injured. Terrell Owens probably shouldn't have answered those questions about what if Brett Favre was at quarterback, but all he said was that Favre was a warrior and has shown he could play through injuries. A lot of reporters thought McNabb was hurting the team by not just getting his sports hernia operated on at the start of the year, so he could come back later in the year. Owens blamed McNabb's poor performance on an injury. Is that so terrible? Once Owens opened his mouth, everyone forgot they were saying the same thing about McNabb. Somehow nobody remembered that McNabb was throwing more bounce passes than John Stockton. Should Owens have kept his mouth shut? Yes. Did he say something disastrous? No. Did the media contribute to stirring up the controversy more so than Owens, McNabb, or anyone on the Eagles? Absolutely.

As for this recent event, let's say Terrell Owens did attempt suicide. If that is the case, then who would blame him. The media at large appears to think it is their responsibility to bash him at every turn. Look in the mirror and blame yourselves. I don't know Terrell Owens mental state or pretend to relate to his upbringing, but I know that it wouldn't feel great to have your intentions questioned at every turn, especially when you lay it on the line for your team. Owens rushed back from an injury to help his team in the Super Bowl and the story was he was playing for personal glory. Joe Thiesmann actually said he thought the T.O. finger injury was good for the Cowboys.

Last year, Hines Ward was also complaining about his contract. Steve Smith complains about his contract. Javon Walker threatened to hold out. This year it was Ashely Lelie and Deion Branch. Did any of those players receive the type of treatment that Terrell Owens did? Let's take a look at his hamstring injury. Hines Ward missed the preseason, Steve Smith missed more time than Owens did. Darrell Jackson sat out all of preseason and training camp. Everyone just assumed Terrell Owens was not really hurt and he was trying to make a media spectacle out of nothing. Let's make sure we say this: Terrell Owens is correct when he says he is singled out.

And if T.O. did attempt suicide, then the reporting of the last day has been deplorable. The primary focus should have been on the well-being of Terrell Owens, discretion protecting his privacy in a personal matter, and patience in getting all of the details. That would have been the courtesy afforded almost anyone else. Not with Owens; the vultures were at work. ESPN has tried to operate with some care, but they had a nice big headline "Report: Suicide Try." Let's get some class fellas. What if he didn't attempt suicide; great job racking him through the mud. Let's stop bashing a guy at every turn and always assuming the worst motives. Owens has no chance to succeed the way he has been treated and it is time for it to stop. Enough is enough.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

It is nice to see that the Seahawks on-field destruction of the Giants has led to an off-field unravelling, specifically the issue between Jeremy Shockey and Tom Coughlin. While everyone is ripping Jeremy Shockey, it should be Tom Couglin taking the brunt of the criticism, both for what he said and how terribly unprepared his team was against the Seahawks. I am not endorsing Jeremy Shockey or his comments here, but Tom Coughlin has no right to be upset with him, especially given the comments he made to the media. With so much being made of Shockey saying "we got outplayed and outcoached," let's take a look at what Couglin said.

Coughlin opened his post-game press-conference with the following comments:

"In the first half, we just gave the game away, and handed it to them. We gave them the ball at point blank range, and gave them great field position. We turned the ball over. A team that does nothing but preach and talk about turnovers, we turned it over like nothing matters, like nothing counts. It cost us the game. We had trouble stopping them. Our pass coverage was practically nonexistent. The scheme, fine, but the individuals playing the scheme, we've got to play better with regard to that...what really bothers me is the first half, the half that we had prepared for. The half we had prepared to start out the game, we had what we thought was a good plan together, and obviously we didn't execute."

Tom Coughlin threw a lot of people under the bus in that opening statement, while avoiding an opportunity to take any responsibility. His scheme was fine, his plan was good, but the players did not play the scheme correctly, the team did not execute the plan. I do not see how Coughlin can say those things and then get upset at Jeremy Shockey for saying the team got beat on the field and in the game-planning. And how can Coughlin make the following comments in regard to Shockey's comments with a straight face:

"Naturally I'm concerned. I'm concerned because there's nothing to be gained by pointing the finger. If you're truly a team and you're in it together, we win or lose together. We don't make a point of pointing the finger at anyone. When we lose, I lose. I take the responsibility for the loss. That's my job."

Sorry Tom, but when you lose, you take no responsibility, claim you had a good plan and a good scheme and point the finger at your players' inability to execute your scheme and plan. And to make it even worse, Jeremy Shockey was right when he said the team got outcoached. The Seahawks did a lot of things on offense that the Giants had never seen, but it didn't take a great football mind to realize Seattle was going to use 4-WR sets. The Giants did not appear to have any idea what they were doing against those spread formations, even though Tom Coughlin says the team expected to see those looks. Some of that is execution, but when guys are wide-open in the endzone over and over, it is a scheme thing.

Shockey is an offensive player, so it is pretty safe to assume his comments were really directed toward what the Giants were doing when they had the ball. Again, it didn't take a genius to realize what the Seahawks were going to do. Namely, try to use the front seven to put pressure on Eli Manning and stop Tiki Barber. I spent about 10 minutes thinking about what the Seahawks were going to do on defense and I realized that. I am not self-promoting here, but if I can figure out what is going on in 10 minutes, then Tom Coughlin should be able to with a week to prepare.

It is not a coincidence that our safeties came up with 3 interceptions; they were sitting back there waiting to help in coverage because they were not concerned about stopping the run or putting pressure on Eli Manning. Even an average football mind knows that running play-action passes doesn't help against a secondary that is not going to bite on the run. Coughlin should have been running more draws to further isolate the front seven and give Tiki Barber more room to run, especially once he reached the second level. Throwing some short passes over the middle and putting pressure on the linebackers to play in coverage would have helped mitigate the pass-rush as well. It was just a bad game plan.

This is not the first time Coughlin has been called out for getting outcoached. The Giants clearly had no idea what Carolina was going to do in the playoffs last year, and Tiki Barber let the world know about it. Plaxico Burress was so upset, he refused to attend the subsequent team meeting. Coughlin had his ass handed to him by John Fox last year and Mike Holmgren and company again this past Sunday. If he wants his players to keep mum about how poorly he planned for those games, then he needs to avoid throwing them under the bus in his post-game press conferences.
The local reaction to Shaun Alexander's injury has been a little surprising. Some fans are practically ready to write off the season, and this is just not that big of a deal. Yes, Shaun Alexander was the league MVP, but he wasn't playing like it this year. It is also a little disappointing to see that 75% of people believe in the Madden Curse (at least of those answering an ESPN SportsNation poll yesterday).

That number only makes sense if we are talking about correlation and not causation. When a player wins the MVP or has a great season, then they get the Madden cover. And like Shaun Alexander did this past offseason, they spend more time making media appearances, trying to sell a book, and shooting commercials than working out and preparing for the next season. Compound that with a nice fat contract and less financial incentive to play well and it is not surprising that Alexander was not off to a very good start. Losing Steve Hutchinson did not help either.

Maurice Morris is not Shaun Alexander, but he is a quality player. His ability to contribute in the passing game actually fits better with what Seattle has been doing this year. Morris has been playing better than Alexander so far this season. His numbers in the Giants game (15 carries for 18 yards) are misleading. Most of that came in the second half when the Seahawks were pounding it up the middle and running out the clock.

Another reason to remain calm is that this injury is not that serious. Alexander will miss this week's game against Chicago, but the Seahawks have a bye the following week. The bone in his foot is not displaced and the fracture is very small, so he could conceivably be ready to return in Week 6. However, it might be more realistic that we do not see Alexander until Week 13 or maybe in Week 11 and 12 to get the rust off. Alexander could miss that much time, not because of the extent of his injury, but because he might not be needed and it would be more important to have him back for the playoffs.

The Seahawks might miss Alexander against Chicago, but they should be fine against St. Louis following the bye week. Minnesota nearly beat Chicago and Maurice Morris is a lot like Chester Taylor (and the rest of the Seahawks are a lot better than the Vikings), so it is not a stretch to think Seattle can still beat the Bears. There is also no reason to think the Vikings will be able to beat the Seahawks at Qwest in Week 7. It would be nice to have Alexander back for the Week 8 trip to Arrowhead, but the Chiefs offensive line is struggling so far and they are currently without their starting quarterback, although Trent Green should be back by then.

It would be surprising if the Seahawks did not go at least 2-2 in the next four games, even without Alexander. It wouldn't be surprising if they rattled off four more wins, either. They should be somewhere between 5-2 and 7-0 after Week 8. The Seahawks then play Oakland and St. Louis at Qwest, take a trip to San Francisco, and then get Green Bay at home on Monday night. Those games are as easy as they come in the NFL. Anything can happen in the NFL, but it is pretty reasonable to think the Seahawks will be at least 8-3 or better after the first 12 weeks of the season.

The bottom line is that the Seahawks can win without Alexander. He should be able to rest without the team dropping too many games. It would be nice to give him some action against San Francisco and Green Bay to knock off the rust before an important game at Denver in Week 13. The Seahawks close with 3 of their final 4 games against Arizona, San Francisco, and Tampa Bay. Those teams are a combined 2-7 right now and two of them (Arizona and Tampa Bay) will be starting rookie quarterbacks. The Week 15 game against San Diego will be tough.

Looking at the schedule for the rest of the year, the most important games are going to be at Chicago, Minnesota, at Kansas City, at Denver, and San Diego. It looks like Alexander will definitely miss the first two and probably the third as well, but he should be back for the last two of those games. The other 8 games left on the schedule are against some pretty weak competition.

This Seahawks team does not live an die with Shaun Alexander. If Maurice Morris can average 62 yards a game, 2.9 yards per carry, and get into the endzone when handed the ball from the 2-yard line, then he will be doing as much as Shaun Alexander did in the first 3 weeks of the season when the Seahawks went 3-0. If Morris gets injured, then it might be time to hit the panic button. However, Alexander should be able to come back sooner if the team needs him.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Apparently when talking about former Patriots, puns are requisite (remember all of the Ty Law headlines during the offseason). I am following suit here in discussing the effect of Deion Branch. It works out pretty well considering that the biggest thing Branch allowed the Seahawks to do was to spread out the Giants defense.

Branch sat out the Arizona game and was activated and used against the Giants in the exact way I predicted the day after he was traded to the Seahawks. The spread offense did not open things up for the running game, but it did mitigate the pass-rush as expected (the Giants did not tally a single sack). The addition of Branch and use of spread formations also really helped out Nate Burleson.

Darrell Jackson nabbed two more touchdowns. Anyone who said D-Jack was an average #1 receiver or complained that he should be traded or let go looks pretty silly now. He has grabbed 17 balls for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns through 3 games. He is on pace for 90 receptions, 1232 yards, and 16 touchdowns. Those numbers might not be realistic, but when healthy, Darrell Jackson is one of the best receivers in the NFL. More important than anything else, D-Jack is already responsible for 12 first-downs. That includes several key third-down catches in each of the first three games.
The crowd at Qwest Field was ridiculous on Sunday. Those Redskins fans at RFK (FedEx Field) can put away those signs they were holding up during the Week One Monday Night game that read "The Loudest Stadium in the NFL." The noise level at Qwest reached 110 decibels at the start of the Seahawks-Giants game on Sunday, and the Giants should point the finger at their own GM - they are throwing each other under the bus left and right as it is.

Giants GM Ernie Accorsi made the allegation that the Seahawks were piping in artificial noise during home games. That was a giant mistake because the Seahawks were smart enough to leak the story to get the fans riled up. It worked. The Giants would have been better off with some piped in noise than dealing with the raucous 12th Man that filled the stands on Sunday. Tom Coughlin insists that the crowd was not a major factor and Tim Booth (AP) is towing the company line.

The crowd clearly impacted Eli Manning and the 12th Man had a lot to do with the fast start of the Seahawks. The noise not only affects the game directly, but has an impact on firing up the Seahawks, especially the defense. The opening interception looked like a mistake by the officials on the jumbotron replays, but I did not get a great look, so I can't say for sure. Normally a mistake like that hurts a team, but it fired up the crowd even more and the tide quickly turned in the Seahawks favor.

The rest of the NFC better hope the Seahawks don't end up with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If the road to the Super Bowl goes through Seattle, then it is probably a formality that the Seahawks will be making a trip to Miami in early February. The win over the Giants was important. The Seahawks have a more important game in Chicago next week. It could be the deciding game for home-field advantage in the NFC. Seahawk fans should now be rooting for the Giants to beat the Bears when they travel to New York in Week 10. The Bears then play at the Jets and at New England.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Picking to Win
Carolina at Tampa Bay - Carolina
Chicago at Minnesota - Chicago
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh
Green Bay at Detroit - Detroit
Jacksonville at Indianapolis - Jacksonville (+7)
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo - Buffalo
Tennessee at Miami - Miami
Washington at Houston - Washington
Baltimore at Cleveland - Baltimore
N.Y. Giants at Seattle - Seattle
Philadelphia at San Francisco - San Francisco (+6)
St. Louis at Arizona - St. Louis (+5)
Denver at New England - Denver (+6.5)

Note: Underdogs are in italics.

Most of the favorites should be fairly safe bets to cover the spread, if they win, with the exception of Buffalo (-5.5). A game between two bad teams could go either way, but the Jets are a horrible road team. Even if Buffalo wins, they will try to make this a low-scoring game, so 5.5 points is a lot to give.
Seahawk fans like to make a big deal about the East Coast Bias, which is kind of silly and really boils down to population and tradition. However, the Seahawks have a golden opportunity to buck some of that bias today against New York and next week in Chicago. If anyone is wondering why everyone was slobbering over the Carolina Panthers this past offseason, look no further than New York and Chicago. The Panthers opened the 2005 playoffs with an impressive win over the Giants (23-0) in New York followed by a victory against the Bears in Chicago.

The Bears and Giants are certainly good teams, but the real issue here is population. New York and Chicago are home to the first and third largest metro areas in the United States (the second largest is Los Angeles, which is currently without an NFL franchise). Those areas represent about 30 million people, which means tons of media and far reaching press coverage.

The Seahawks will be front and center this week against the Giants. The presence of the NFL on Fox in Seattle is evidence of how much coverage this game is getting. If the Seahawks can beat the Giants, then they will be primed for a showdown in Chicago next week. The Seahawks face the Bears on Sunday Night Football in Prime Time. It should be a match-up of two 3-0 teams.

There are 11 2-0 teams in the league right now. Three of them will fall this week with the Bears facing the Vikings, the Jaguars going up against the Colts, and the Falcons meeting the Saints on Monday Night. Of the remaining undefeated teams, Cincinnati and New England face each other in Week Four, and both teams also have tough match-ups this week against Pittsburgh and Denver, respectively. Baltimore and San Diego are also undefeated and play each other in Week Four.

Assuming Chicago and Seattle win this week, there will be a maximum of one other undefeated team in the NFC when the Bears and Seahawks face off next Sunday night, and a maximum of only 3 in the AFC. My guess is that Atlanta, San Diego, and maybe Indianapolis will be the only other undefeated teams at kickoff of the Seahawks-Bears game. If San Diego is not undefeated that almost certainly means Baltimore will be (as long as they get by Cleveland). Jacksonville will have a tough time against Indianapolis this week (especially if Matt Jones can't play), and even if they pull off a win this week, they head to Washington next week. So the short story is that the Seahawks and Bears should be two of four or five undefeated teams left when they face each other.

If the Seahawks can pull off wins in the next two weeks, the media world will take notice in a huge way.

Saturday, September 23, 2006

The Giants come into Seattle after an emotional overtime win over the Philadelphia Eagles. It was not a pretty win and Philadelphia just isn't that good, especially after losing Javon Kearse for the season. Lito Sheppard and Donte' Stallworth were both struggling with injuries as well.

It might sound immature to say this, but the Seahawks should win easily if the Giants do not get help from the zebras, which they almost certainly will. The blantant Oregon robbery of Oklahoma has me seriously questioning officiating in general. The ability of the Cardinals to get away with horse-collar tackles and Larry Nemmers slowing down the Seahawks offense makes me only more wary of the growing problem of poor officiating to the point of actually questioning the integrity of the officials (something I really want to avoid). The pass-interference call on Ken Hamlin didn't help either. Maybe I am a little jaded after the Super Bowl and watching Pittsburgh continue to get every call go their way over the first two weeks.

As far as the Steelers go, in Week One it was consistent blocks in the back by the Steelers, especially downfield by the receivers, without any calls, while Miami got penalized several times on key third downs on ticky-tack calls so the Steelers could continue to move the ball. In Week Two it was Max Starks blatantly holding Rob Meier on about half of the plays and then shoving him in the back to clear him from Roethlisberger on several other plays, while Jacksonville got called for some ticky-tack holding calls on the interior of the line. The numbers don't lie, through the first two weeks the Steelers have been flagged 4 times for 35 yards, while their opponents have been penalized 16 times for 149 yards.

The Giants received two touchdowns as gifts from Nemmers last year. Jay Feely did miss three field goals that could have won the game, but it should not have been that close to begin with. The Giants did not score a legitimate touchdown in the game last year. Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, and Amani Toomer are all banged up heading into Sunday's rematch. The key to stopping that offense will be putting pressure on Eli Manning and stopping Tiki Barber with the front seven. The Hammer did not play last year, and the secondary should be able to handle Shockey and the receivers (that is unless they get help from the zebras again).

Deion Branch will make his debut, and it could mean a big day for the running game and for Nate Burleson. Burleson has looked terrible so far, dropping balls and not making an impact. However, he will be the fourth receiver in some four-wide sets, meaning that he will be drawing single coverage by the fourth-best guy in the Giants secondary. He has been getting covered by the top corner on the opposing team as Darrell Jackson was being underestimated by opponents coming off his knee injury. The weakness of the New York defense is the secondary, so the passing game could have a nice day if Hasselbeck gets time to throw.

Shaun Alexander should be able to find more room to run from spread formations. The offensive tackles, especially Sean Locklear, need to direct Osi Umenyiora and Michael Straham to the outside. If they can get those pass-rushers wide, then the middle will be wide-open for the running game. Maurice Morris could have some long runs on draws in third-down situations.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Week Two
1. Seattle (2-0)
- The NFC West does not appear to be closing the gap at all.
2. Chicago (2-0)
- Is Rex Grossman for real? The Bears still need to beat a non-NFC North team.
3. Atlanta (2-0)
- They put up 558 rushing yards (123 more than anyone else) in the first two weeks against two of the top three rushing defenses from 2005 in the NFC.
4. Dallas (1-1)
- The loss to Jacksonville isn't looking so bad now.
5. N.Y. Giants (1-1)
- Comeback division win on the road was impressive, but can they beat a playoff team?
6. Minnesota (2-0)
- Won twice by facing two injury-plagued teams, but luck is part of the game. They will show what they really have against Chicago this weekend.
7. Philadelphia (1-1)
- DE Jevon Kearse is done for the year and CB Lito Sheppard figures not to play this week. The Eagles need to win 3 of their next 4 if they want a chance at the playoffs. Their schedule is front-loaded with easy games, but it is brutal down the stretch.
8. Washington (0-2)
- Shawn Springs and Clinton Portis need to play for this team to win. When they both play this team is one of the best in the NFC.
9. Carolina (0-2)
- The Panthers should win their next three games even if they do not have Steve Smith or Dan Morgan, but they could easily lose the three after that. They will struggle to make the playoffs.
10. Detroit (0-2)
- Seattle and Chicago are the two best teams in the NFC. The Lions should win the majority of their next five games against lesser competition, and should be 5-2 or 4-3 heading into their Week 8 bye.
11. New Orleans (2-0)
- Wins over Green Bay and Cleveland are not exactly awe-inspiring, but the Saints grabbed two wins on the road and will play at the Super Dome on Monday night for the first time since Hurricane Katrina. Their next three games are against their NFC South rivals.
12. St. Louis (1-1)
- Orlando Pace's concussion is bad news. It could lead to Marc Bulger getting injured and that would be a disaster. The showdown in Glendale this weekend will determine if St. Louis is really a step ahead of the Cardinals.
13. San Francisco (1-1)
- Looking as good as the rest of the also-rans in the NFC West.
14. Arizona (1-1)
- The Cardinals might be the worse team in the NFC West. They did nothing to get better besides adding Edgerrin James and it shows.
15. Tampa Bay (0-2)
- Chris Simms looks like the quarterback that couldn't win the big game at Texas. This is an 0-2 team with no injuries to point to as an excuse. Either Carolina or Tampa Bay is starting 0-3 and it looks like it will be the Buccaneers.
16. Green Bay (0-2)
- Starting out with back-to-back home losses is not a good sign.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Floyd "Pork Chop" Womack will miss the next 6 weeks with a knee injury. To say Womack is injury-prone is an understatement. Chris Spencer will now fill the void at left guard and Womack will not return to the starting line-up unless someone else gets hurt. The offensive line continued to struggle against the Arizona Cardinals.

The biggest problem appears to be at right tackle, rather than left guard. We might not be too far away from seeing Tom Ashworth take over for Sean Locklear at right tackle. Locklear still needs a few more bad games before anything would happen, but he did not play well during the preseason and his struggles have continued through the first two weeks. Ray Willis also struggled during the preseason.

Shaun Alexander is not helping out the situation either. The line has missed some blocks and the opposition is keying on the run, but Alexander just doesn't look like the running back he was last year. Maurice Morris is making it hard for Alexander to blame the offensive line. Alexander has 140 yards on 40 carries (3.1 average), while Morris has 48 yards on only 7 carries (6.9 average). Morris also has 2 catches for 33 yards, while Alexander has 3 catches for 10 yards with a couple of drops.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Week One
1. Seattle - Still on top until they lose.
2. Chicago - Offense looks better, defense still strong.
3. Atlanta - Adding Ashley Lelie and Grady Jackson helps. Is this the year Vick lives up to expectations?
4. Dallas - Tough loss on the road to Jacksonville, but is the offensive line in trouble again?
5. N.Y. Giants - Eli still isn't a leader.
6. Carolina - Injuries along the offensive line are cause for concern.
7. St. Louis - Did Jim Haslett fix the defense?
8. Detroit - Mangini and Martz making talented players realize potential.
9. Minnesota - Capitalized on an injured Washington defense.
10. Washington - Tough loss without Shawn Springs, but they should bounce back.
11. Tampa Bay - Is Baltimore that good or is Chris Simms that bad?
12. Philadelphia - Hard to tell much with a win against Houston
13. Arizona - Edgerrin James doesn't help if they can't block for him.
14. New Orleans - Reggie Bush is exciting, but the Saints still have plenty of holes.
15. San Francisco - They might be better than Arizona, but they need to win some games to prove it.
16. Green Bay - Brett Favre held the Packers hostage the last two offseasons and it's showing.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

FoxSports Totally Football - OneOnOne

Alexander's Analysis - 3:52 (Video)
"Reigning NFL MVP Shaun Alexander discusses the Seahawks' Week 1 struggles, his laid-back style and his chess addiction."
The Arizona Cardinals are not much better than they were last year (2006 Arizona Cardinals Preview). The signing of Edgerrin James was basically their only offseason move. The only other additions even worth mentioning are RG Milford Brown and DT Kendrick Clancy. Milford Brown comes from Houston, which is not exactly a hotbed for offensive lineman. Clancy is decent, but not a difference maker. He is not an upgrade over Russell Davis. In short, the Cardinals are still terrible.

The offensive line is firmly entrenched as one of the worst in the league. Edgerrin James is not someone that can overcome that. It might be different if the Cardinals had signed Barry Sanders in his prime, but James is not an elusive back. He averaged a pathetic 2.8 yards per carry against a poor San Francisco 49ers defense in Week One. That is on par with the Cardinals did in the two games against the 49ers last year (2.9 and 2.8 yards per carry, respectively). That means the front seven does not need safety help. The Seahawks can get away with nickel packages without worrying about giving up big gains on the ground.

The extra men in coverage will be needed to cope with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Bryant Johnson. The Seahawks managed to keep that trio of receivers to a single touchdown over both games last season. In fact, the Cardinals only scored one touchdown against the Seahawks, but did manage 8 field goals. Kurt Warner put up 334 yards and a touchdown in the Week 9 game. However, he also threw 3 interceptions, lost a fumble, and was sacked 4 times. Ken Hamlin was out of the line-up and Julian Peterson wasn't on the roster. It should be another tough outing for Warner. The Seahawks can blitz and pressure him and watch the the sacks and take-aways pile-up.

When the Seahawks have the ball, all eyes should be on Shaun Alexander. Alexander only had 313 yards and 6 touchdowns in the two games against Arizona last year. If you figure the loss of Hutchinson means Alexander will produce at only two-thirds of the level he did last year, then he should still be good for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. Alexander should run all over the Cardinals. He could put up impressive numbers against this defense even if he was running behind the Arizona Cardinals offensive line.

The Cardinals will need to put extra men in run support. CB Antrel Rolle might be ready to become a shutdown corner, but he is the only player in the secondary worth mentioning. Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson should have big days (assuming Rolle will be covering Jackson). In the one game when Jackson and Rolle lined-up across from each other last year, D-Jack got the better of it anyway, grabbing 8 balls for 125 yards. The Seahawks should just run it down Arizona's throat, and then throw it to the open receiver when Arizona commits to stopping the run.
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