Carolina should be one of the best teams in the NFL this season. However, they could likely face many of the same injury issues that have plagued them the past two years. Last season, the injuries did not catch up to the Panthers until the NFC Championship game, but they were a big part of the 7-9 season that followed the Super Bowl XXXVIII loss to the Patriots. If Carolina can avoid major injuries, they will be as tough to be as anyone in the league.
Last season, Steve Smith had one of the best years for a wide receiver in recent history. He would be hard pressed to repeat that performance, especially after defensive coordinators have had the entire offseason to come up with schemes to stop him. He was held to 34 or less yards six times last season (including the NFC Championship game), so that should give them somewhere to start. Smith racked up 903 yards in the first half of the season, but his production dropped off considerably to 660 yards for the final eight contests. Many people are expecting Keyshawn Johnson to free up Smith even more, but that might not be the case.
Steve Smith ranked first in both short and medium passes, but only 27th in deep passes. Keyshawn has always been slow and was near the bottom of NFL receivers with 11.8 yards per catch last year. Much of Smith's success came on short catches that he turned into long gains. Johnson actually allows opposing defenses to shade the safeties toward Smith because they do not have to worry about Keyshawn beating them deep. Steve Smith has the speed to be the deep threat, but that is not what he excelled at last season and his height can be a factor. A breakout season from the speedy Drew Carter (6'3") would help Smith more than the addition of Keyshawn. It will be interesting to see how Dan Henning uses the receivers and if there is enough room for the egos of both "Me-Shawn" and Smith.
The success of the team is largely tied to their success running the football. Keyshawn Johnson should make an impact in the running game where he excels as a down-field blocker. The offensive line has become one of the better units in the league. Former Green Bay Packer LG Mark Wahle (signed as a free agent last year) went to the pro bowl in his first season with the Panthers. RT Jordan Gross has lived up to expectations as the eighth overall pick in 2003. The Panthers added one of the league's better centers this offeseason when they signed Justin Hartwig (Tennessee). The only question mark is the unproven RG Evan Mathis who should replace RG Tuten Reyes (Buffalo). Delhomme should have time to pass behind this line, and they will open plenty of running lanes for the Panthers' backs.
De'Shaun Foster begins the year as the starter with Stephen Davis gone. Foster is extremely injury-prone and has missed time every season because of it. He sat out his entire 2002 rookie year due to injury as well as most of 2004. He broke his ankle in the playoff win at Chicago last year. First-round pick Deangelo Williams and converted fullback Nick Goings will back him up. Williams comes with his own durability issues. An MCL tear cut his sophomore season short and he broke his leg in the 2004 GMAC Bowl as a junior. He was overworked at Memphis, carrying the ball 623 times for 3,912 yards over his final two seasons, and he might take a beating in the NFL at 5'9", 214. Goings is more than capable if called upon, but changes the offense considerably. If Foster and Williams can stay healthy, the Panthers are in great shape, but to think they will is somewhat foolish.
The same can be said of DT Kris Jenkins. He has missed most of the past two seasons and might not be the player he was before the injuries. Even without Jenkins, the Panthers have one of the best defensive lines in the league. DT Maake Kemoeatu (Baltimore) joins DE Julius Peppers and DE Mike Rucker. The Panthers also added DT Damione Lewis (St. Louis) for depth and as insurance for Jenkins. MLB Will Witherspoon (St. Louis) was a leader and will be missed. The team also lost starters LB Brandon Short (New York Giants) and SS Marlon McCree (San Diego). The linebacking corps will not be as good, but the secondary is still in great shape with FS Mike Minter, CB Ken Lucas, and CB Chris Gamble. CB Richard Marshall (Fresno State) was an excellent value pick near the end of the second-round and will help make up for the loss of CB Ricky Manning Jr. (Chicago) in the nickel.
The Panthers look good on both sides of the football, and the defense should be one of the best in the league. On offense, the impact of Keyshawn Johnson remains to be seen and the health of De'Shaun Foster will be a factor. No one is talking about it, but the loss of Stephen Davis could really hurt the short-yardage offense, especially around the goal-line. Davis scored 12 rushing touchdowns last year - 9 of them came from the one-yard line and the longest was 11 yards. Foster only has 4 career rushing touchdowns. Steve Smith could have a significant drop in production and still make the pro bowl, but Carolina needs someone else to step up and give the offense balance or defenses will key on him like Seattle did in the NFC Championship game. The Panthers should win their division, but will have a hard time getting one of the top two spots in the NFC with a much tougher schedule than either Chicago or Seattle.
Key Additions: DT Maake Kemoeatu (BAL), C Justin Hartwig (TEN), RB Deangelo Williams (R), WR Keyshawn Johnson (DAL), DT Damione Lewis (STL), LB Keith Adams (PHI), CB Richard Marshall (R)
Key Loses: LB Will Witherspoon (STL), LB Brandon Short (NYG), SS Marlon McCree (SD), RB Stephen Davis (ret), CB Ricky Manning, Jr (CHI), DE Brenston Buckner, OG Tuten Reyes (BUF)
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