Seahawks path to the playoffs

The games are almost hard to watch, and it will be difficult to dig deep and find some enthusiasm at Qwest Field this coming Sunday. If the Seahawks lose, they will drop to 2-8, which will put them 5 games back from Arizona Cardinals with 6 games to play. A loss next week and it's time to start talking about the 2009 NFL Draft.

While I don't expect the Seahawks to make the playoffs, there is still a less-than-impossible path to winning the division. The Seahawks must take both remaining games from the Cardinals. That would put the Seahawks at 4 wins the Cardinals at 5 losses. The Seahawks would then need to win two more games than the Cardinals do in the 5 remaining games each team plays (not against each other). The Cardinals are certainly capable of going 2-3 or even 1-4, and the Seahawks could squeak out a win against New England or Washington. The rest of the opponents are all very beatable. I don't think all of that is going to happen, but it remains possible.

A win against the Dolphins last week and a loss by Arizona to San Francisco last night would have made a huge difference. The inexcusable loss to San Francisco and the improbable win by Arizona against the Cowboys was another difference maker. A few plays going the other way in those games and we would have the 4-5 Seahawks and 4-5 Cardinals tied at the top of the NFC West.

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Go Seahawks, Go Rams

The Seahawks have a good chance to end up only 1 game back from the division lead. Wins by the Rams and Seahawks today wouldn't be shocking - both teams are home underdogs, which are always dangerous to bet against.

Donnie Avery and company should thrash the Cardinals secondary. The question is whether or not the Rams can contain the Cardinals receivers. Look for Warner to turn it over 3+ times in a return to St. Louis.

The Seahawks are banged up, but at home. Mike Holmgren will manage to handle his disciple Andy Reid - especially after Leroy Hill knocks Westbrook out of the game early with a big hit.

NFC West
Cardinals 4-4
Seahawks 3-5
Rams 3-5
49ers 2-6

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Real Seahawks Fans Wanted

The team isn't in that bad of shape. The Seahawks may not make the playoffs, but it is hard to believe they will be worse than the 1992 season, when they went 2-14 (1-7 at home). The bigger question is will the fair weather fans stick around when things get rough.

Right now, a real Seahawks fan thinks the defense sucks, Trufant is overpaid, the offense is in shambles, but believes the team has a shot tonight to beat Tampa Bay, get a win next week at SF, and then beat the Eagles at home to climb back to 4-4. Then The Seahawks can take the Dolphins on the road and will be 5-4 when they face the Cardinals at home with a chance to take the division lead. And sure, they might stumble and lose one of those games, but as long as it isn't against the Cardinals, the Hawks would be in pretty good shape at 5-5 with 6 games to go.

I am not saying that I think that will happen as an unbiased observer because I am not. I am a Seahawks fan. A real Seahawks fan. I will bitch and moan, decry the coaching staff, boo the sorry ass defense when they stink it up at home, but I will be there making enough noise that my voice is scratchy on Monday when the Hawks defense is trying to get a stop on third down, even if they are down 24-3.

This isn't going to be a pretty season, and the team might miss the playoffs, but remember, they are not out of it until they are mathematically out of it...at least to a real fan.

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Branch & Engram In, Burress Out

In an odd twist, the Seahawks might be in a better wide receiver situation than the New York Giants when the two teams face off in Week 5. Both teams are coming off byes, and Seahawks fans will get their first dose of Deion Branch since last season, and Bobby Engram will take the field for the first time since training camp.

The Giants will be without star wide receiver Plaxico Burress, who despite injuries has played in 56 of 57 games since he joined the Giants in 2005 (including 6 playoff games). Burress has scored 32 touchdowns during that time. Deion Branch has missed 11 games since joining the Seahawks in 2006, and has found the endzone only 8 times in 27 games.

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Seahawks 55-man 53-man roster

52 of my 53 made the Seahawks roster. I assumed the team would go with Owen Schmitt over David Kirtman, but I am not as comfortable as the Seahawks with giving him a roster spot he didn't earn. The front office chose to go with potential.

The Seahawks ended up with 55 players due to the suspensions of Jordan Babineaux and Rocky Bernard, which bought Brandon Coutu and Justin Forsett one more week on the active roster. Forsett should eventually land as the eighth member of the practice squad (not counting international exemption Samuel Gutekunst).

Of the players already named to the practice squad, OG Pat Murray was the only player not on my list. Hard to believe he is still around after poor performances and penalties during the preseason. The Seahawks are also rolling the dice with only 6 LBs on the active roster and none on the practice squad. Tim Ruskell is hoping Will Herring will be ready can come in after Week 6, but has a few of his former players on speed dial just in case.

Offense (27)
QB (3) - Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
HB/FB (6) - Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, Owen Schmitt, Justin Forsett
WR (6) - Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent, Logan Payne
TE (3) - John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
OL (9) - Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Mike Wahle, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Floyd Womack, Steve Vallos

Defense (24)
DE (5) - Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Jason Babin, Baraka Atkins
DT (5) - Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill, Howard Green
LB (6) - Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, David Hawthorne
S (4) - Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux, C.J. Wallace
CB (4) - Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Kevin Hobbs

Special Teams (4)
K - Olindo Mare, Brandon Coutu
P - Ryan Plackemeier
LS - Jeff Robinson

Practice Squad (8)
WR Michael Bumpus
TE Joe Newton
OL Kyle Williams
OG Pat Murray
S Jamar Adams
DT Kevin Brown
CB Marquis Floyd
OT Samuel Gutekunst

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Final Roster Analysis: Seahawks 53-Man Roster

Seahawks 53-Man Roster Prediction

Offense (26)
QB (3) - Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
HB/FB (5) - Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, David Kirtman
WR (6) - Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Courtney Taylor, Jordan Kent, Logan Payne
TE (3) - John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
OL (9) - Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Mike Wahle, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Floyd Womack, Steve Vallos

Defense (24)
DE (5) - Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Jason Babin, Baraka Atkins
DT (5) - Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill, Howard Green
LB (6) - Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, David Hawthorne
S (4) - Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux, C.J. Wallace
CB (4) - Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Kevin Hobbs

Special Teams (3)
K - Olindo Mare
P - Ryan Plackemeier
LS - Jeff Robinson

+ DT Larry Tripplett if Deion Branch starts the season on the PUP List

Practice Squad (9)
OT Samuel Gutekunst
RB Justin Forsett
FB Owen Schmitt
WR Michael Bumpus
TE Joe Newton
OL Kyle Williams
LB Dallas Sartz
S Jamar Adams
DT Kevin Brown
CB Marquis Floyd

Gutekunst is an international player exemption. One of the other guys obviously can't make it (most likely Floyd or Williams) unless Forsett gets picked up off waivers by another team.

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Definitive Roster Analysis

Battles tonight are:
- David Kirtman and Owen Schmitt (Kirtman is in the lead, Schmitt will be given every opportunity to earn this spot)
- Justin Forsett, Jordan Kent, and Logan Payne (all 3 could make it if Deion Branch ends up on PUP list to start the season, but unless something dramatic happens tonight, Forsett or Payne is headed to the practice squad)
- Baraka Atkins and Jason Babin (Babin is in the lead)
- Olindo Mare and Brandon Coutu

Offense (27)
QB (3) - Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
HB/FB (5-6) - Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, David Kirtman/Owen Schmit, (Justin Forsett)
WR (5-7) - Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor, (Jordan Kent/Logan Payne)
TE (3) - John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
OL (9) - Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Mike Wahle, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Floyd Womack, Steve Vallos

Defense (23)
DE (4) - Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Baraka Atkins/Jason Babin
DT (5) - Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill, Howard Green
LB (6) - Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, David Hawthorne
S (4) - Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux, C.J. Wallace
CB (4) - Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Kevin Hobbs

Special Teams (3)
K - Brandon Coutu/Olindo Mare
P - Ryan Plackemeier
LS - Jeff Robinson

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Bobby Engram out 6-8 weeks, Marcus Tubbs released

Bobby Engram cracked a bone in his shoulder and will miss 6-8 weeks, which probably translates to the first four games of the season (the Seahawks have a bye in Week 4). That isn't a major concern and might not even result in an extra receiver on the roster.

The Seahawks will typically have 4 active receivers on game days. The concern will be the health of Logan Payne and Courtney Taylor as August 30th approaches. As long as they are ready to play, then the Week 1 actives will be...
Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne

Branch will miss the first couple of games, Bobby will miss the first month or so. Seneca Wallace would be available in an emergency situation, and Jordan Kent and Michael Bumpus can beMarcus Tubbs called up from the practice squad.

The Marcus Tubbs release shouldn't be a surprise. His career has been unofficially over for nearly a full year. The battle for the final DT spot is between Howard Green, Larry Tripplett, and Chris Cooper. Green was on the team last year, isn't sidelined with an injury, and has been playing well in practice and the preseason. He has the clear lead in that race.

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Seahawks roster shaping up

Injuries and effort have earned Steve Vallos, Howard Green, and David Hawthorne roster spots. The losses of Chris Gray and Wesley Mallard made room for Vallos and Hawthorne, and both are seizing the opportunity. Howard Green was always in the mix for the final DT spot, but due to injuries, he has really been competing against himself. He has been playing very well and made the team last year.

The running back situation is getting more muddled. Owen Schmitt hasn't yet overcome David Kirtman to earn his spot, but he's slowly starting that push. He has shown some flashes with the ball in his hands, but his blocking needs to improve in a hurry. Justin Forsett continues to make flashy plays albeit against 3rd stringers a la Marquis Weeks of pre-seasons past. He might play his way onto the roster as the 6th RB or find a way to steal a spot over Kirtman and Schmitt, or maybe from another position (that is highly unlikely).

T.J. Duckett put the ball on the ground twice against the Vikings, but he isn't going anywhere. He isn't a fumbler, so those plays were flukes more than anything, and his lack of success up the middle has more to do with the offensive line than anything else. If he starts do line-up at fullback, we could see Forsett make the team and Schmitt land on the practice squad.

Offense (26)
QB (3) - Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
HB/FB (5) - Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver
WR (6) - Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne
TE (3) - John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
OL (9) - Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Mike Wahle, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Floyd Womack, Steve Vallos

Defense (24)
DE (4) - Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Baraka Atkins
DT (5) - Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill, Howard Green
LB (7) - Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, Will Herring, David Hawthorne
S (4) - Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux, C.J. Wallace
CB (4) - Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Kevin Hobbs

Special Teams (3)
K - Brandon Coutu
P - Ryan Plackemeier
LS - Tyler Schmitt

Practice Squad (9)
RB - Justin Forsett
WR - Jordan Kent
WR - Michael Bumpus
TE - Joe Newton
OT - Kyle Williams
OT - Samuel Gutekunst
OL - Ben Claxton
DL - Nu'u Tafisi
DB - Jamar Adams

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Seahawks Scrimmage - Offensive Line (inc. TE)

TE
John Carlson appears to be the real deal and should play a huge role this year, both blocking and receiving. He knows how to get open, runs clean routes, makes grabs, and is a good blocker. All of the reasons the Seahawks traded up to draft him. The only concern are limitations due to his lack of speed, which is hard to gauge without the starting LBs out there. Will Heller didn't stand out, but they did use some 2 TE sets. Putzier was sidelined.

Offensive Line
This is the biggest concern for 2008 and beyond. Walter Jones and Sean Locklear offer stability on the outside for now. Floyd Womack looked solid filling in at LT for Walt (although injuries are always a concern).

The concern since Steve Hutchinson left has been the interior. Mike Wahle only looked OK, but he will be fine. The concern is at C and RG, and depth on the interior (especially with the litany of injuries). Steve Vallos has been doing a decent job at center, but if he has to play, then you can forget about running up the middle.

The Seahawks probably need a better option behind Chris Spencer, and it is hard to think that Ben Claxton is the answer, but maybe. Mansfield Wrotto actually blocks well from the center spot, although the exchanges aren't always clean. Spencer's injuries make this a pressing concern.

Wrotto and Ray Willis provide solid depth on the right side, but Rob Sims is the reason for concern. He is a marginal starter and should be fighting off Ray Willis for a starting job. Wrotto would be a decent fill-in, but he isn't ready to start. The problem with starting Ray Willis at RG is that it leaves the Seahawks without a reserve RT. He could always slide over if one of the starting tackles gets injured.

Things will have to sort themselves out with Chris Gray's retirement, but the Seahawks really need a guy that can backup Chris Spencer and play guard if needed. Ben Claxton and Steve Vallos aren't great options for that role. Wrotto has the ability to be that guy in the future, but he isn't ready yet.

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Seahawks Scrimmage - QBs and WRs

QBs
Matt Hasselbeck hardly payed and Seneca Wallace looked about like normal - decent, but more of an athlete than a passer.

Charlie Frye was the QB worth noticing. Frye looked good, and like a real QB. That is impressive given what he was working with, but not surprising. He was a starter in Cleveland with a weak supporting cast. He is ready to play if need, so we will see Seneca Wallace doing a lot more than holding a clipboard.

WRs
As with Justin Forsett, too much has been made of Jordan Kent's performance. He beat Omare Lowe on a deep route at the end of the scrimmage and caught a beautifully thrown ball from Charlie Frye. Michael Bumpus had a better scrimmage and made a better play on his catch at the goalline of the north endzone.

Kent was lost throughout the scrimmage to that point, never getting open, running the wrong routes, and often getting singled out by the QB and coaches after plays to tell him what he was doing wrong. His speed is still exciting, but beating Lowe on a deep route isn't something that earns a roster spot. He wasn't even one of the guys practicing punt returns.

It was a shame Courtney Taylor was held out, but he, Ben Obomanu, and Logan Payne are the second unit. Payne and Obomanu looked like real NFL receivers and found the soft spots and holes in the defense to get open and make catches. Kent will get his chances will Payne sidelined due to his ribs, but don't expect anything to change.

Deion Branch was at practicing catch balls on one knee and standing on one foot, while the coaching staff pushed him in the back. It looked like Holmgren's comments about him being ready at the start of the season aren't too far off. I still think Week 2 or 3 is more realistic. He did lay down on the turf in some pain for about a minute when catching balls on one knee, but seemed OK after.

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Chris Gray retires...

Bad news for the Seahawks. Good news for Steve Vallos (unless they go out and get a true center to serve as a backup - I can't imagine Ben Claxton is the answer, but maybe).

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Seahawks Scrimmage - Backfield

On Saturday, the general public got there first look at the 2008 version of the Seattle Seahawks. The scrimmage was heavily focused on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th string with a number of starters sidelined with minor injuries or just held out to avoid injury. Even so, the scrimmage yielded some important observations. We'll start with the backfield.

Backfield
Predictably, more was made of Justin Forsett's performance than was warranted. He did look good, but it was against a bunch of guys that won't be making the team. It's a lot easier to run away from Chris Cooper, David Hawthorne and Jamar Adams than NFL regulars. Marquis Weeks had nice scrimmages and preseason games in the past.

Don't get me wrong, Forsett would be a solid #3 RB if there weren't 3 better guys on the team. There just isn't room for 4 HBs on an NFL roster. He is the best practice squad back the Seahawks have had in years.

David Kirtman and Owen Schmitt were noticeably lackluster. Kirtman looked like the better blocker and was on the field much more and played with the guys further up the depth chart. There is still time for that to change, but I wouldn't recommended buying one of the #35 jerseys that are in the Seahawks Pro Shop just yet. If it gets close, Schmitt might make the team as a PR and fan relations move. That is one of the most interesting battles to watch. Anyone still pushing the idea that Schmitt will be cutting into Weaver's playing time by midseason?

I floated this as one of the possible albeit unlikely scenarios a month or so ago, but it is looking a little more reasonable at this point: Justin Forsett makes the team and Kirtman and Schmitt don't. I still don't think that will happen, but that is Forsett's only chance (other than an injury). In that scenario T.J. Duckett would serve as the backup FB.

Duckett had an excellent scrimmage and showed exactly why Tim Ruskell brought him in. And it isn't to play fullback (Duckett didn't line up there once). Maybe Mike Holmgren can figure it out now. Anyone still pushing the idea that Duckett is going to be cut or traded? Duckett will likely end the season with more touches than Maurice Morris (unless Julius Jones misses significant time).

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Seahawks Training Camp Opens

The first three days of Seahawks training are complete. There haven't been any major developments yet, but a few noteworthy events took place that already begin to address some outstanding questions coming out of the last minicamp

TBD: Will health concerns keep either Mike Green or C.J. Wallace from making the squad? Is there room for Kevin Hobbs?

Answer: Yes to both. The Seahawks released S Mike Green because he wasn't able to stay healthy. Green also had only one year at $1.3 million left on his contract, making him less attractive from a financial and development stand point than C.J. Wallace or Kevin Hobbs. Green's release is a positive signal for both of those players. Jordan Babineaux is basically the #3 safety and will continue to come in as part of the nickel package (I think of him as a third safety in that personnel grouping). Hobbs now figures to make the team as the #4 corner, behind Josh Wilson. And C.J. Wallace appears to have put his health struggles behind him and he will be the 4th safety. Hobbs could still be a numbers causality if injury concerns force the Seahawks to keep 10 offensive linemen.

TBD: Will Deion Branch be healthy enough to be on the active roster on August 30th?

Answer: That question remains unanswered, although it appears very likely that he will be ready enough to avoid staying on the PUP list, and would just be one of the 8 inactive players for the first few weeks of the season. Bobby Engram reported to camp, which helps make that an easier decision to make. I was ready to call the "young receiver" race back on May 5th, and the reality of that situation should be more apparent to everyone now. Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu, Logan Payne in that order. Those guys are making the team. Jordan Kent is not.

TBD: Who else makes the team, if anyone? Marcus Tubbs, Larry Tripplett, Howard Green, and Chris Cooper are all worth mentioning.

Answer: Howard Green is currently working alongside Craig Terrill with the second unit. That could easily change as camp moves forward and is what to watch for to determine the Seahawks thinking. Tripplett and Red Bryant are with the third unit for the time being.

TBD: Is the coaching staff comfortable enough with Charlie Frye to allow Seneca Wallace a more expanded role at receiver or as a return man?

Answer: That question is still entirely open. However, it isn't as important with Bobby Engram reporting to camp and the receiver position solidifying. Wallace isn't as needed at receiver as he might have otherwise been. It would still be nice to see Charlie Frye make some solid strides and to see Seneca Wallace make some athletic plays.

TBD: Can Floyd Womack stay healthy enough to make the team? Given the health issues across the board on the offensive line, this might be a year the Seahawks keep 10 guys.

Answer: He better. And with the other injuries (most notably the latest to Chris Gray), the Seahawks going with 10 offensive linemen is looking more and more likely. I originally assumed that last spot would come from the wide receiver position by axing Jordan Kent. However, If Deion Branch isn't on the PUP list at the start of the season, then that spot needs to come from another position because Branch replaces Kent in the numbers count. It could come down to Kevin Hobbs vs. Steve Vallos for the final roster spot. The other possibility would be a scenario where the Seahawks keep only 8 defensive linemen. Marcus Tubbs, Larry Tripplett, Howard Green, and Chris Cooper would all find themselves left off the final 53-man roster.

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Updating the Roster as Training Camp Begins

My roster prediction needs updating for the first time since it first appeared this season on 5/2.

Kevin Hobbs replaces Mike Green for the 8th DB spot, and Deion Branch moves from the PUP list to the 53-man squad bumping Jordan Kent to the practice squad. There are injuries along the offensive line and open questions at DT, kicker, and now punter. Those situations are still unchanged or unresolved at this time, and don't yet warrant any changes. And for completeness, I will point out once again that Owen Schmitt still has to take David Kirtman's job from him.

Offense (26)
QB (3) - Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
HB/FB (5) - Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, Owen Schmitt
WR (6) - Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne
TE (3) - John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
OL (9) - Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Mike Wahle, Chris Gray, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Floyd Womack

Defense (24)
DE (4) - Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Baraka Atkins
DT (5) - Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill, Larry Tripplett
LB (7) - Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, Will Herring, Wesley Mallard
S (4) - Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Jordan Babineaux, C.J. Wallace
CB (4) - Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Kevin Hobbs

Special Teams (3)
K - Brandon Coutu
P - Ryan Plackemeier
LS - Tyler Schmitt

PUP List
DT - Marcus Tubbs

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Seahawks Practice Squad

Practice Squad (8)
We know that OT Samuel Gutekunst will be the 9th player as part of the International Practice Squad Program. He doesn't count towards the 8 player limit.

Ignoring Gutekunst, there is a basic formula to the make up of the practice squad that holds pretty true. It does depend a little hon how many at each position make the active roster. The Seahawks will likely keep the following number of players at these positions between the active roster and practice squads:
QB - 3
RB - 6
WR - 7
TE - 4
OL - 11
DL - 10
LB - 8
DB - 9

That adds up to 61 if you include the specialists (53 active roster, 8 practice squad). You normally end up with something like the 6th RB, 7th WR, 4th TE, 9th and 10th OL, 10th DL, 8th LB, and 9th DB on the practice squad. That will shift a little depending on health at specific positions and whether or not an extra guy makes the active roster at a given position (e.g. a 9th DB on the active roster might mean no DBs on the practice squad).

The majority of the practice squad will most likely be made up from guys on the following list: RB Justin Forsett, FB Owen Schmitt, WR Jordan Kent, TE Joe Newton, OT Kyle Williams, OG Steve Vallos, DE Nu'u Tafisi, LB Matt Castelo, and S Kelin Johnson.

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Real Seahawks Roster Analysis

I've posted the same Seahawks 53-man roster prediction twice (on 5/2 and 6/4), and I didn't see anything in the two minicamps that convinced me enough to make any changes just yet. As noted previously, CB Kevin Hobbs is the one player I didn't include that is making the biggest push to earn a roster spot. It also looks like Olindo Mare is winning the kicker battle, but that should be expected at this point.

A series of posts went through the roster position-by-position, but lets take a look at what we know for sure and what is left to be decided during training camp.

Offense
Quarterbacks (2-3)
Locks: Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
TDB: Is the coaching staff comfortable enough with Charlie Frye to allow Seneca Wallace a more expanded role at receiver or as a return man? As of right now, the answer to that question is no. By the end of training camp, things could be different. Jordan Kent might be the player most directly affected.

Backfield (5-6)
Locks: Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver
TDB: Can David Kirtman hold off Owen Schmitt and keep the backup fullback job? Can Justin Forsett make a big enough impact on special teams to earn a roster spot? The answer to both of those questions is probably no. However, it is important to realize that Schmitt has to take Kirtman's spot, not the other way around. As for Forsett, keeping a 4th halfback doesn't usually make a lot of sense.

Receivers (5-7)
Locks: Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor
TBD: Will Deion Branch be healthy enough to be on the active roster on August 30th? That doesn't mean he has to be ready to play in Week 1, but rather ready enough to be valuable over the first six weeks. That being said, it looks like he will most likely land on the PUP. That has a big impact when it comes to crunching the numbers at several positions.

Logan Payne looks like a safe bet to be the sixth receiver (counting Deion Branch). I have Jordan Kent as the last player making the 53-man squad. That is mainly due to Branch's injury, Bobby Engram's holdout, and uncertainty about Charlie Frye. If those concerns sort themselves out, then Kent will be headed back to the practice squad to make room for a 9th DB, a 10th offensive or defensive linemen, or possibly even a 6th RB.

Tight Ends (3)
Locks: John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
TBD: Who will start? Or does that even matter? We can expect to see more two tight end sets, and all three tight ends should get a decent amount of action. Putzier is probably the most likely to see the least amount of playing time this year.

Offensive Line (9-10)
Locks: Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Mike Wahle, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Chris Gray, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto
TBD: Can Floyd Womack stay healthy enough to make the team? He is a lock unless his minor injury concerns turn into something major before August 30th. Given the health issues across the board on the offensive line, this might be a year the Seahawks keep 10 guys. Right now, Kyle Williams is that 10th guy, and Steve Vallos is the 11th. It will probably take an injury (to one of the 9 guys ahead of them) for either of them to jump from the practice squad to the active roster. Otherwise, it will depend on if another position can sacrifice a spot.

Defense
Defensive Ends (4-5)
Locks: Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Baraka Atkins
TBD: How does Lawrence Jackson fit into the rotation? Jackson is probably a better first and second down DE and Tapp is a better third down DE. I would expect Jackson to eventually play more at DE in running situations, and Tapp more in passing situations. Jackson is also going to see time at DT when the Seahawks are looking to put a lot of pressure on the passer. Will a 5th DE make the team? I doubt it, which isn't good news for Jason Babin or Chris Cooper.

Defensive Tackles (4-6)
Locks: Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill
TBD: Who else makes the team, if anyone? Marcus Tubbs, Larry Tripplett, Howard Green, and Chris Cooper are all worth mentioning. It's hard to think Tubbs will be ready to contribute at the start of the season, if at all this year. I put him on the PUP list by default. I don't think Chris Cooper will get much of an opportunity to line-up at DT during training camp. Injuries will play a major role here, but I think it really comes down to Larry Tripplett vs. Howard Green for one spot. That will be decided during training camp, but I think Tripplett is the better player and better fit for this defense.

Linebackers (7)
Locks: Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, Will Herring
TBD: I think Wesley Mallard is a lock as well, but just to keep it interesting, I am going to at least mention Matt Castelo as someone with an outside chance to make the team. I think he has a good chance to land on the practice squad.

Defensive Backs (7-9)
Locks: Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Jordan Babineaux, Deon Grant, Brian Russell
TBD: Will health concerns keep either Mike Green or C.J. Wallace from making the squad? Is there room for Kevin Hobbs? Those two questions are directly related and might also depend on what happens at other positions. Hobbs is still on the outside looking in until things clear up, but it feels like one way or another he is going to make it impossible for the Seahawks to cut him. Kelin Johnson doesn't look up to the task of making a run at the roster, but he could land on the practice squad. Jamar Adams speed, or lack thereof is a major issue, and he'll have trouble making the practice squad.

Special Teams (3)
Locks: Tyler Schmitt
TBD: Will Ryan Plackemeier's torn pectoral muscle heal in time for the start of the season? The Seahawks will be signing a veteran any day now as an insurance policy, which means Plackemeier is no longer a lock to make the team. Brandon Coutu still has some time to make his case that he is as good as Olindo Mare, but if everything remains as is, then it will be Mare that makes the team. If Mare can comeback fully from his injury, then he is the favorite. That should be fun to watch during the preseason games. Pay attention to both kick-offs and field goals.

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Minicamp Notes

1) Offensive Line - With Floyd Womack out, the Seahawks finally went to the strategy of moving Sean Locklear over to left tackle. That allowed Ray Willis to get some time at right tackle with the starting unit. Kyle Williams worked at right tackle with the second unit. Williams is clearly the fourth tackle on the depth chart when Womack is out. That will be the story to watch in camp, Womack vs. Williams, and health will be a major factor.

2) C. J. Wallace - C.J. Wallace will be an interesting player to watch. He has a few things working against him (recovering from a knee injury and a recent appendectomy), but his job looks safe for now. The absence of Mike Green and C.J. Wallace has left the door open for another safety to challenge for a roster spot. It doesn't appear anyone has designs on walking through it.

It has been CB Kevin Hobbs stepping it up in practice. Right now, it looks like Hobbs is the only challenger for the 8th DB spot, and Jordan Babineaux's versatility makes that a possibility. Babs has been playing safety with the second unit with Hobbs at corner. If the Seahawks sign a veteran safety, then Hobbs shouldn't feel too confident. If Mike Doss was healthy enough to play, he would probably be on the roster by now.

3) Seneca Wallace - Wallace was returning punts the other day, but don't get too excited. Wallace isn't so much competing with Charlie Frye to be the backup QB, as Frye is really competing with himself to prove he would be adequate if both Matt Hasselbeck and Wallace were out. If Frye can earn the confidence of the coaching staff, then that will mean more Seneca Wallace on the field in 2008. It also might mean another year on the practice squad for Jordan Kent.

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Seahawks 53-man roster

Jordan Kent is starting to make the kind of strides he needs to in order to make the team. Although I noted him as a longshot in my receiver analysis, he might be working himself onto the fringe of the roster. I've had him as making the opening day roster based on my assumption that Deion Branch will start the season on the PUP list. If that doesn't happen, then I still seem him as facing rather long odds. Kevin Hobbs is also beginning to look like he might challenge for a DB spot. That will be quite a challenge with Jordan Babineaux moving to CB on a full-time basis.

It is probably time to update the Seahawks 53-man roster that was posted here on May 2nd prior to the first minicamp: Seahawks 53-man Roster (as of 5/2).

I didn't actually make any changes, although C.J. Wallace certainly has a few things working against him. At this point, I see Kevin Hobbs, Jamar Adams, Howard Green, David Kirtman, Kyle Williams, and Olindo Mare as the most likely of the omitted players to make a run at the roster.

Kevin Hobbs and Jamar Adams will be pushing Mike Green and C.J. Wallace. Howard Green is in a head-to-head battle with Larry Tripplett. David Kirtman is trying to hold off Owen Schmitt. Kyle Williams is the injury contingency plan at tackle, and Olindo Mare is in a heads-up battle with Brandon Coutou.

The practice squad guesswork will be included in the next installment, which should come out sometime between the end of minicamp and training camp.

Seahawks 53-man roster (as of 6/4)

Offense (26)
QB (3) - Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye
HB/FB (5) - Julius Jones, T.J. Duckett, Maurice Morris, Leonard Weaver, Owen Schmitt
WR (6) - Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor, Logan Payne, Jordan Kent
TE (3) - John Carlson, Jeb Putzier, Will Heller
OL (9) - Walter Jones, Sean Locklear, Chris Spencer, Rob Sims, Mike Wahle, Chris Gray, Ray Willis, Mansfield Wrotto, Floyd Womack

Defense (24)
DE (4) - Patrick Kerney, Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jackson, Baraka Atkins
DT (5) - Rocky Bernard, Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill, Larry Tripplett
LB (7) - Lofa Tatupu , Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill, D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, Will Herring, Wesley Mallard
S (4) - Deon Grant, Brian Russell, Mike Green, C.J. Wallace
CB (4) - Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Josh Wilson, Jordan Babineaux

Special Teams (3)
K - Brandon Coutu
P - Ryan Plackemeier
LS - Tyler Schmitt

PUP List
WR - Deion Branch
DT - Marcus Tubbs

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Is Justin Forsett Fast?

Not for the NFL.

Weaknesses: Marginal size limits his NFL upside. He lacks the bulk to carry the fulltime load in the NFL and he doesn't have much room on his short frame to get bigger. Struggles to push the pile and is not very effective in short-yardage and/or goal line situations (see: 2nd quarter vs. Oregon in 2006). Runs low and hard but doesn't have enough power to run over most defenders. Is quicker than fast. Gets tracked down from behind too frequently. His marginal size is also a problem in pass protection. He struggles to anchor versus bigger oncoming linebackers and he becomes a matchup problem when in the game on certain play-calls, as a result. - Scouts, Inc.

I'm not trying to be down on the kid, but he ran a 4.549 at his Pro Day after skipping it at the combine. That is bad news for an undersized speed back. I just don't think he has much of a chance to make it in the NFL unless he turns out to be a dynamo on coverage units. Even then, the Seahawks don't normally keep more than 5 running backs (that includes Josh Scobey in the count when he was with the Seahawks).

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Matt Hasselbeck on Minicamp

(On practicing at Husky Stadium…) “I thought it was great. Mike Holmgren said it best, ‘practice was a sloppy start.’ He said, ‘Guys this was not in the plan but sometimes stuff happens and sometimes you go out there and you play a game and you’ve got a blizzard and you just have to deal with it and adjust, or it’s raining or whatever.’ He made that analogy and I thought it was a good one and your focus has to be the same. You can’t be thinking about that or make excuses. You just have to adjust and improvise and do the best you can.”

(On the young receivers...) “They’re working really hard. We are asking a lot of them. We’re moving them around and having them play at different positions but I think they’ve done a nice job. They are all great guys and they’re having a lot of fun with Coach Gilbertson coaching them. Each day it seems like one guy will stand out but we have a long camp here and then we have training camp and then we have preseason games, so there’s a lot of time. All in all I think it’s a great opportunity for these guys. I would say that they are doing the best to take advantage of it.”

(On the new running backs…) We have a new offensive line coach with some new wrinkles. We have a new assistant offensive line coach with some new wrinkles and a new running backs coach. It’s just all brand new right now. There is a lot of change but I think in the end it will make us tougher to defend.”

(On the change with coaches and players…) “There are all kinds of changes. There is no monotony right now, especially in our room, everything’s new. We have a lot of new coaches, we have a lot of new players and Mike’s (Holmgren) been very creative. He’s allowed his coaches to be creative and said, ‘Lets try some new wrinkles, lets try some of the old plays we’ve run from new formations, new people.’ Our running backs are even running the pass routes right now so there’s a lot of change.”
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(On being able to participate in minicamp…) “It is way more fun getting to play football.”

(On the NBA finals…) “I’m making a prediction. I’m thinking Celtics in three. (laughter) That’s how good they are. They’re so much better than the Lakers. That’s my prediction. Write it down.”

(On John Carlson…) “He really hasn’t been taking too many snaps. I don’t think he’s been in there with me. I can’t remember him being in there with me. Mostly it’s been Will Heller and Jeb (Putzier). From what I’ve read he’s a smart guy and I’m sure he’ll pick things up and he’ll be in there. We’ll give him an opportunity to get in there with the ones. To be honest, I don’t think I can give you an answer yet.”

(On Carlson coming into the league and starting…) “He’s here a lot. I see him when I get here in the morning. He’s got a playbook and when I’m leaving he’s still here. He’s definitely doing double time and trying to get ready, trying to get up to speed. He has a great opportunity and he’s learning from some of the best coaches in this game and he’s also learning from some guys that have been around in Jeb and Will. We would like him to help out this year, if he can.”

(On the team chemistry…) “I think it’s pretty early but there are some real positive signs. Our offensive line has definitely come together and that’s a huge start. We have good guys in the running back room, competing for one football. At the same time we have guys in the wide receiver room competing for a spot on the team. It has been good healthy competition but I think we have the right ingredients so far.”

(On Hasselbeck playing in this minicamp…) “I think it’s nice. I don’t think it’s absolutely necessary. That’s part of the reason why we’re not freaking out that Walt (Jones) isn’t out there, Chris Spencer’s not out there, Bobby Engram’s not out there. It’s definitely easier if you’re able to be out here and get these reps and have this time. If you’re not, if you’re Deion Branch, you just have to do what you can do and when your time comes to be healthy enough to play you have to do the best that you can but I’m happy to be out there.”

(On the young receivers being in minicamp…) “I think that’s huge, for those guys to get the reps with our first group. That is rare. Whether it’s young receivers or young tight ends, it doesn’t really matter. If you’re out there getting coached by your position coach and getting reps with the starters, it’s just a great opportunity to learn.”

(On Coach (Bill) Lazor…) “He’s great. He’s a real smart guy. He’s around my age but you wouldn’t know it. He’s real serious, much more mature than I, which isn’t that hard but I think he is going to be a great coach. I would not be surprised at all if he’s a head coach in this league very soon. He’s got the ingredients for what you look for in that and he’s already up to speed on offense. It’s not like we have to explain anything to him. He’s put the work in, he’s put the time in. He is very, very accurate with the information he gives and it’s nice. It makes it a lot of fun and it makes it easier to learn.”

(On Coach Holmgren and the receivers…) “He’s always been involved in the passing game. We have a lot of young, raw talented wide receivers right now and really all they need is some of that experience and they need some of that savvy and that is probably what he is doing, just trying to help that along a little bit.”

(On Nate (Burleson) being the only true veteran receiver…) “Nate’s awesome. I love Nate. He usually does a lot of things by example. We know what Nate can do. Nate can score. Get the ball in his hands and he’s going to score for you. He’s going to make plays. I think we are giving everybody else an opportunity to showcase what they can do. I know that if we are trying to absolutely win every time, we would put Nate somewhere and get him the ball and let him do his thing. He has been great.”

(On Hasselbeck’s relationship with Coach (Jim) Mora…) “We probably talk trash to each other a little bit because he is on defense. He initiates that. I probably see his wife at the club more than I see him at swim lessons.”

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Provided Courtesy of the Seattle Seahawks Public Relations Department.
Seahawks Media Site Transcripts.

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Lessons from Minicamp

Although today was a short session, we learned a few important things as Seahawks minicamp opened (or at least had them confirmed). It's worth reading the Offensive Minicamp Preview from last Monday.

1) Courtney Taylor is going to start at flanker in Week One. Although, I said that over a month ago in my analysis of Seahawks Wide Receivers, it should now be more apparent to everyone. Logan Payne is lining up in the slot, while Jordan Kent is working at split end. Obomanu will continue to play every position.

Flanker: Deion Branch, Courtney Taylor, Ben Obomanu/Logan Payne
Split End: Nate Burleson, Ben Obomanu, Jordan Kent
Slot: Bobby Engram, Ben Obomanu, Logan Payne

2) Mansfield Wrotto is a guard, Ray Willis is a tackle. Wrotto is a safe bet to make the roster. Willis may get some work at guard, but he is primarily a backup tackle. The conversation now turns to whether Floyd Womack can remain healthy. If not, then Kyle Williams is looking to take his roster spot. The Seahawks Offensive Line picture has a little more clarity, but depth and health are huge concerns. The Seahawks could be in trouble, but Kyle Williams and Steve Vallos are decent options in a doomsday injury scenario.

3) Leonard Weaver is the starting fullback. Again, this was noted about a month ago when we took a look at the Seahawks Running Backs, but now Mike Holmgren said the same publicly, so maybe more people will listen. David Kirtman and Owen Schmitt will be battling for the backup fullback job throughout training camp. Kirtman has a better chance than people give him credit for, but I still think Schmitt wins out for the roster spot.

4) Baraka Atkins is a lock to make the roster. I don't know if this was ever really in doubt, but the separation from the top 4 and the rest of the group is quite clear. I was a little weak in my Seahawks defensive line analysis the other day and gave more credit to the challengers than I should have. Jason Babin and Chris Cooper are longshots to make the team. The competition at DT is real though (Cooper is running 3rd in that battle behind Howard Green and Larry Tripplett).

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Mincamp with Mike Holmgren: Day One

Here are Mike Holmgren's comments. Check out the Seahawks Blog main page for actual analysis.

Minicamp Transcript (6/2) - Mike Holmgren

(On the rookies at camp…) “We really try and push them a little bit to what they’re learning so they don’t come into training camp blind about anything. My challenge to them this morning was that everyday as individuals you get better. The rookies will spin because we’re throwing a lot of stuff at them but some of those guys we’re hoping for a contribution this year so that’s how we have to do it.”

(On Hasselbeck’s health…) “He is healthy. He’s feeling pretty good, I think and he’s had a good offseason, he’s here and running those workouts. He and Lofa (Tatupu) run the workouts for us when we can’t be out on the field, so I think he’s feeling comfortable. He’s feeling good. We’re adding some new things and we add as much as we can add that he’ll retain and function well.”

(On the new coaches…) “They’re doing a great job, they really are. I’m very impressed. First of all, they work hard and then they’re excellent guys and then they communicate well which is the most important thing probably, to communicate well with their position groups. They have learned our stuff quickly. That’s a learning curve too for them and then they’ve added a little wrinkle here and there, and I like it. So, that’s going well.”

(On how different this offseason has been compared to past offseasons…) “I don’t think it’s been any really different than any offseasons we’ve had before. There is always a chance you have a contract thing and that’s why we’ve got that thing with Bobby (Engram), there’s always a chance that a good guy gets jammed up a little bit and that’s what happened with Lofa. And you guys know him, he’s a good guy. So, I would say the offseason is pretty much the way it always is.”
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(On Tatupu and his recent problem…) “You guys know him he’s a really fine guy. I always say ‘but for the grace of God go aye’, you know I mean and I think if we all looked at our own things that we do and how many times you’ve been driving to fast and didn’t get caught, things like that. You know stuff happens and its life and he has felt very, very bad about it. He is a good man. He is a leader of this football team and people that know him know that and so he learned from this. It will never happen again and now we move on.”

(On what Coach Holmgren said to Tatupu…) “I didn’t have to say a whole lot, he knew. He’s that type of young man. He felt bad and he knows what his role is on this football team and like I said I didn’t have to say anything. He felt horrible.”

(On the decision on the starting running back…) “We probably won’t make that decision right until late. We’ll go into training camp. You know Mo (Morris) and Julius (Jones) are going to carry the ball a good portion of the time. Leonard’s (Weaver) going to be our starting fullback. The one I have to figure out a little bit is how we are going to use Duckett.”

(On the backfield and how it will be used…) “I think the backfield we kind of know how we’re going to use it. We have to figure out how we are going to use it for T.J. This is no different than it always is, you know, with offseason surgeries and stuff. Rarely do you have all your offensive linemen. They are learning the plays and it’s new for them like it is for Julius. I got it pretty well set in my mind except for a couple of positions. We just have to figure out how we are going to use them.”

(On if Nate Burleson’s role will change with special teams…) “That’s another one. That’s one of those things like I just mentioned. I would say that we are going to have to see how that goes. He’s a valuable special teams player and he’s good for us, but if he is our starting split end I might have to reevaluate that. Then I have to see if someone can do what he did. We are working on that.”

(On Rob Sims being back for this camp…) “I don’t think so. But he is coming along just fine. He’s on schedule. He’s not ahead of schedule.”

(On when Deion Branch will be on the field again…) “No, we will make a decision right up around opening game.”

(On the biggest differences from the Super Bowl team in 2005…) “Well, I think we had such a good, productive offensive line that year. Then you lose Tobeck and Hutchinson. Then you substitute young players, so you’re going to have a change there. You’ll have good young players, but young players. You’re going to have some change there. Walter (Jones) was a little nicked up the last couple years so that’s going to have some effect. Maybe the biggest one is that Shaun (Alexander) was hurt. Both years he got hurt. You put all that together and you kind of get what you get.”

(On Walter Jones’ health…) “He’s fine. He’s coming along fine.”

(On the young wide receivers…) “My thing there is I think we are talented but we are awful young. We really are young, and inexperienced so I’m paying particular attention to those kids. They’ll have to play. I want to make sure and make the right decision.”

(On Deion Branch and his role…) “It’s a tough one, because we don’t know. Right now I’m not thinking much about him yet. I’ve got to get my mindset going on those other guys. Deion when he’s ready and he can play, he’ll play and we’ll be fine. Until that time, if I go in thinking that I’m going to have him at a certain time, that’s a big disappointment, so I’m kind of looking at it the other way. Then when he’s ready to go he’ll tell me and that’s the other thing to consider, is that you have an injury of any kind with any player and they look at the medical book and it says this is a 4-6 week injury, this is this and this is this, well guys heal differently, for starters. No one knows. We need him and we hope he comes back as quickly as he can.”

(On how much Branch will practice at camp when he comes back…) “It is hard to come back and go 100% right away but you can point to other athletes who have come back. To answer your question, yes we hope he comes back soon, but some guys go longer. When a guy comes off an injury though, we won’t put him on the field until he says to push him in practice time so the rest of his leg gets strong. The injury could be fine, but then because of the injury he’s not as strong as he should be and those types of things. So now you have holes to work out. So that’s what they talk about when that injury takes longer. He’s doing fine. He’s right on track. They’re please with is progress.”

(On how much of a read Coach Holmgren gets in a mini camp on the young guys, especially the receivers…) “You can see whether or not you have pads on, the receivers have to do what they do. You can see how they catch, how they run routes, how they retain the information, those things. You can evaluate those guys pretty well even in a mini camp, maybe more so than say a guard or a defensive tackle and those kinds of things where the pads really separate the men from the boys on that deal.”

(On whether Coach Holmgren will work all the young receivers at the flanker position…) “No probably not, no.”

(On where the young receivers will play…) “I think right now I think Courtney Taylor working at Z, Jordan Kent’s at X, Logan’s at Z, I think. In fairness to the receivers, we’re going to stick them some place and have them learn instead of having them learn three positions. We’re going to try that and see how it works out.”

(On the move of Keith Gilbertson to receivers coach…) “He’s a pain (laughs). No, he’s doing great. When I asked him, he was a little reluctant at first to be honest with you. I said, ‘Good coaches are good coaches’. He’s a good communicator, he’s a good teacher. He’s been an offensive coordinator. I have no reluctance. He’s doing it and he’s doing a great job.”

(On whether Coach Gilbertson thought Coach Holmgren was kidding about being the receivers coach…) “Well he kind of looked at me. Maybe for the first 5 seconds, then I was kind of looking at him like, ‘I’m not kidding.’”

(On if changing his philosophy because the receivers are so young…) “Well, I think so. That’s one of the reasons and I think they have to be good right away. There’s a learning curve involved certainly but I want to try and speed it up if I can do it, now if I can do it and I think the best way to do that is to have them learn and get comfortable with doing one thing right now.”

(On how Tripplett will fit in…) “He’s a good young guy. He is a hard working guy. We have to see. It’s one of those things. It’s way too early to tell. We have a pretty good group of defensive lineman now and we just have to see. It’s hard to tell at mini camps. You have to wait until you put the pads on for offensive and defensive linemen.”

(On what Coach Holmgren has at running back…) “I think we know how Mo (Morris) is going to play. He will play well. I know what he can do he’s been with us a long time. Leonard (Weaver), came on last year and got better as the season went on and I need him too. I hope he continues going. He should. He’s a good player, physically talented enough. Julius, I don’t know as well but he appears to have good quickness, good hands, the right guy. I don’t see any downside to him. I think that will work out fine. Like I said, I just have to work out and then Kirtman is with us. I have to kind of work out how we’re going to use Duckett. That is really the question, as to how we’re going to use a player.”

(On how to use Duckett…) “Is he a fullback, is he a halfback, do I use him on short yardage and who comes out of the game if I do that. It’s all that kind of stuff.”

(On whether or not Morris and Julius are guys you can just leave in the game…) “No, they’re in the game. I don’t think I will have to plan around them. Mo absolutely not, and Julius I don’t think so. I just haven’t been with him enough.”

(On how that changes things for Coach Holmgren…) “It makes it easier. With the few seconds you have to really make an intelligent call, you don’t have to think so much about protections, who’s in the game, the type of route you call. If you don’t have a guy that can do all those things, absolutely it’s my responsibility to try and do that to help the team. If you don’t have to, it’s easier. It’s easier to call the play and go.”

(On patience with kickers…) “I think you do, particularly if you draft one. If you draft one you’re going to make a financial commitment right away. You should never draft a kicker, unless you think he’s pretty good. I’ve told you guys this story about Ryan Longwell. In Green Bay, we drafted a kicker very, very high. He got hurt, so we brought in this guy. I didn’t even know his name. He stood in front of me and the first kick he kicked, he hit our left tackle right in the head with the ball, and the second one hit our tight end right in the butt. It didn’t get more than 3 feet off the ground. I turned around and no one would look at me. It was Ryan Longwell and he has been one of the great kickers of the league forever. He just had a rough day. It was his first day, he was nervous, and he was a great kicker. I’ve learned patience over the years. I’m a little more patient than I used to be.”

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Provided Courtesy of the Seattle Seahawks Public Relations Department.
Seahawks Media Site Transcripts.

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First Line of Defense

Seahawks Position Watch: Defensive Line

We'll get to Pro Bowler Patrick Kerney and first-round pick Lawrence Jackson, but stopping the run is the first priority.

The Seahawks gave up 102.8 rushing yards per game in 2007, down nearly 20% from the 126.8 yards per game they gave up in 2006. That was quite an accomplishment without Marcus Tubbs, especially with the lack of a running game to control clock and keep the other team off the field. It wasn't the 94.4 per game the Seahawks gave up in 2005, but the team didn't have luxury of sitting on big leads last year.

The reason for the re-found success in stopping the run was by-and-large the play of the defensive line. Patrick Kerney's ability to get to the passer allowed the linebackers to stay at home and make tackles, but the biggest difference maker was Brandon Mebane. Mebane started the final 10 games of the season, and during that stretch the Seahawks only allowed 94.5 yards per game on the ground. That is on par with the 2005 numbers.

The run defense should get some additional help in the form of Red Bryant. He is a big 1-technique defensive tackle that can plug up the middle. While new is often seen as better by the fan base, it would be a sign of bad things if we see too much of Big Red this year. If he is starting, then it means Brandon Mebane is injured.

The Seahawks defense is built on having one DT that can put pressure on the passer and one run-stopper (unless they are facing an obvious running or passing situation): Rocky Bernard and Brandon Mebane, Craig Terrill/Larry Tripplett and Red Bryant. The Seahawks will keep 9 (possibly 10) defensive linemen, and the competition for the final 2-3 spots is going to get heated.
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The defensive ends are probably set. Patrick Kerney is poised to return to the Pro Bowl, Darryl Tapp is really coming into his own, and the addition of first-round pick Lawrence Jackson is going to keep both of those guys fresh to keep the pressure on opposing QBs. Jackson is a complete defensive end in the mold of Michael Strahan or Alex Brown. He can play the pass or the run. He'll eventually find his way to the starting line-up, and Darryl Tapp is probably best used as a situation pass-rusher. Kerney, Jackson, and Tapp together on third-and-long will lead to quite a few sacks.

Baraka Atkins is the presumed 4th DE, and that is a pretty safe presumption. It's possible the Seahawks could go another route, but Atkins appears to be developing as expected. The Seahawks will keep at least 4 DEs and 4 DTs, and up to 1 more more at each position. The most likely scenario is 4 DEs and 5 DTs.

Even if that 4th DE spot is up for grabs and the Seahawks keep 10 defensive linemen, that only leaves at most 3 spots for Baraka Atkins, Howard Green, Larry Tripplett, Chris Cooper, and Jason Babin to fight over (and that's also assuming Marcus Tubbs doesn't figure into the mix at all).

Atkins, Babin, and Cooper are fighting for the 4th and possibly 5th DE spots. Green, Tripplett, and Cooper are left to fight for the 5th DT spot, if the team even keeps that many.

Making a few assumptions and simplifying things, it really boils down to Baraka Atkins vs. Jason Babin for the 4th DE spot with Atkins holding a huge advantage in that competition heading into training camp. And Larry Tripplett vs. Howard Green for the 5th DT spot with Tripplett the favorite to win that battle.

Chris Cooper's best chance to make the team is if the Seahawks decide to keep 10 defensive linemen. Some people might point to his versatility as an advantage to be a swing 5th DE/5th DT that would allow the team to keep 9 defensive linemen and cover all their bases. However, it more than likely really means he isn't quite good enough at either position to stick.


Starters: Patrick Kerney, Brandon Mebane, Rocky Bernard, Darryl Tapp
Locks: Lawrence Jackson, Red Bryant, Craig Terrill
Looking safe: Baraka Atkins
Battling: Larry Tripplett, Howard Green
Longer odds: Chris Cooper, Jason Babin
PUP List: Marcus Tubbs

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Seahawks Secondary

Seahawks Position Watch: Defensive Backs

The full set of "position watch"-es should be complete by the start of minicamp. That means the secondary (in this post), then the defensive line and specialists will be addressed by Monday.

If it were two years ago, then we would be discussing whether or not the Seahawks should sign Ty Law. The fact that we aren't sifting through the free agent pool is a good sign. The Seahawks have spent a lot on the secondary in the past two years in the form of draft picks on Kelly Jennings and Josh Wilson, free agents contracts for Deon Grant and Brian Russell, and contract extensions for Jordan Babineaux and Marcus Trufant.

That isn't the most impressive or flashy group, but those six guys form a solid foundation for a decent secondary. Grant and Russell are really the key players. They aren't superstars, but they provide a safety net to keep the rest of the defense from giving up big plays. Ken Hamlin went to the Pro Bowl last year, but Tim Ruskell doesn't regret letting him go one bit.

Jennings is coming into his own, although he had some pretty atrocious games last year. Is he a permanent starter in the NFL? That has yet to be determined. 2008 is the year he will either prove he belongs as a starter or become a nickel corner. Josh Wilson's status is less certain, but injuries did slow his progression last year. Remember, he was able to shutdown Calvin Johnson in college. Wilson is only being asked to be a kick returner and the 4th CB. He at least has that covered.
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Did Trufant deserve his big contract? I am as hard on the guy as anyone, but I think so. I'm not even certain Tru deserved to go to the Pro Bowl, but he firmly entrenched himself as the #1 CB in Seattle; and his positive impact on the community and in the locker room is worth the money from a total business perspective, if not from a pure on-the-field football standpoint.

The question marks begin when you look beyond the corners and starting safeties. Mike Green's lisfranc injury from the 2006 preseason will always be a question mark. He has struggled a bit with injuries since his arrival in Seattle, but Green is still a very good safety. Unless the injuries have really caught up with him, he is good enough to start at either free or strong safety for most NFL teams. Injuries are the only concern with Green.

The same can be said of C.J. Wallace. Wallace was good enough that the Seahawks decided to trade Michael Boulware prior to cutdown day last year. That might not be saying much given Boulware didn't start a single game for the Houston Texans and only made a total of 7 tackles. Wallace is a decent player, but he is clearly a guy on the fringe of the Seahawks roster. His knee injury in 2007 could be the reason he doesn't make the squad.

Wallace, a free agent rookie a year ago, will be pitted directly against free agent rookie Jamar Adams. Adams started 33 games at Michigan. If he had run a faster 40-yard dash at the combine, then he might have been a first day draft pick. Adams is also a proven special teams contributor, which can often decides these competitions. Wallace has a clear advantage after making the Seahawks roster a year ago, but this battle is one to watch during training camp. Adams and Wallace could conceivably both make the team if Mike Green is too limited by his injuries.

If neither Wallace nor Adams prove worthy of a roster spot, the Seahawks could always keep CB Kevin Hobbs on the roster because of Jordan Babineaux's ability to play either CB or S. That should be seen as an unlikely scenario because Hobbs adds little value. A 7 DB scenario is probably more plausible than Hobbs making the roster. I feel bad writing that because Hobbs is a good player and a good guy, but he probably isn't good enough to make it as a full-time NFL player.


Starters: Marcus Trufant, Kelly Jennings, Deon Grant, Brian Russell
Locks: Jordan Babineaux, Josh Wilson
Looking safe: Mike Green
Battling: C.J. Wallace, Jamar Adams
Longshot: Kevin Hobbs

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Seahawks Linebackers

Seahawks Position Watch: Linebackers

It isn't a secret that the Seahawks have one of the top groups of starting linebackers in the NFL. Julian Peterson and Lofa Tatupu are perennial Pro Bowlers, and Leroy Hill is nearly as talented. If Hill could avoid the nagging injuries, then he would put pressure on voters to send all three to Honolulu. John Marshall should utilize Hill more on blitzes and drop Tatupu and Peterson in coverage (because they are better and to keep offenses guessing).

The depth of the unit is a little more in question. The loss of Kevin Bentley is a bigger deal than the loss of Niko Koutouvides in terms of the defense, especially given the concerns over Hill's ability to stay healthy. The return of D.D. Lewis more than makes up for that. The question to be answered is the overall impact on special teams. Wesley Mallard is a good special teams player and a decent reserve linebacker.
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The Seahawks targeted a few linebackers in the draft, but none were around when it came time to pull the trigger, otherwise Xavier Adibi might well have been a Seahawk. The availability of Red Bryant in the fourth round also threw a wrench into the works. Alvin Bowen would have been a consideration in the fifth if he lasted. Wesly Mallard was the contingency plan, and was promptly signed after the draft. He should fill the void.

There really won't be much competition for roster spots, although Matt Castelo is the darkhouse. Castelo will probably wind up on the practice squad, but he has as good of a chance as any undrafted free agent to make the team.

Depth should be alright for 2008, but the lack of a potential starter on the bench means huge leverage for Leroy Hill come contract time. If Hill can stay healthy this year, then he will cash in as he will be the Seahawks #1 priority to re-sign in free agency, although they might not be able to afford to spend anymore on the LB corps.

Starters: Lofa Tatupu, Julian Peterson, Leroy Hill
Locks: D.D. Lewis, Lance Laury, Will Herring
Looking safe: Wesly Mallard
Longshot: Matt Castelo

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Minicamp Watch: Seahawks Offense

The Seahawks will begin the minicamp traditionally called "passing camp" on June 2nd. Here are 5 things to look for on offense during those two weeks. What are you watching for?

1) Running Backs. Minicamp is a great time to experiment with running back formations. Julius Jones will get most of the work as the feature back with Maurice Morris backing him up. It will be interesting to see how T.J. Duckett works into the mix. Are he and Morris going to be 2a and 2b? Will he be lining up with Jones in split-back sets? Will he be in there in single-back sets? Duckett is really the wildcard to watch. And Duckett's role will impact Leonard Weaver as well.

As the season progresses, I see Jones and Duckett as the 1-2 punch, Morris becoming more of a scatback, and Weaver playing the traditional fullback role as well as getting some action in single-back sets on 3rd-and-short (5 yards or less). Fans are excited about newcomer Owen Schmitt, but he likely won't make much of an impact besides on special teams and as the backup fullback in case Weaver gets injured.

2) Wide Receivers. Bobby Engram will probably sit out this camp, so Nate Burleson will be given his chance to shine (or flop). Burleson caught 6 of his 9 TD receptions in the final nine games of the season. This will be Burleson's sixth NFL season, but he won't celebrate his 27th birthday until near the end of training camp. With D.J. Hackett gone and Deion Branch injured, Burleson should be poised for a breakout year. After Burleson, Courtney Taylor and Ben Obomanu are the two main players to watch. Those three should comprise the first unit in 3-WR sets (Taylor at flanker, Obomanu in the slot, and Burleson at split end). Logan Payne will also get a fair amount of work in the slot. Engram's absence might actually give the team more confidence for life after Bobby. 2008 is almost certainly his final season in Seattle.

3) Quarterbacks. How will the backup reps divide between Charlie Frye and Seneca Wallace? The #3 QB doesn't usually get much work with the starters or even the second unit. Frye might find himself tossing the ball to Logan Payne, Jordan Kent, and Anthony Russo. Or we could see Frye getting an equal amount of reps as Seneca Wallace. Wallace might even be the recipient of some Frye passes.
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4) Offensive Line. The starters are set, but there is a good chance Walter Jones, Chris Spencer, and Rob Sims will sit out all or most of minicamp. That means LT, C, and RG need to be replaced. Floyd Womack should get the work at LT and Chris Gray at C. If that is the case, then Womack should be considered a lock to make the team. It does leave a few possibilities at RG, which might illuminate the offensive line situation. Ray Willis should be back at practice and might take the reps at RG. But where does that leave Mansfield Wrotto? It would be surprising if Wrotto doesn't make the team, but a permanent move to guard for Willis would be a strong signal the Seahawks are considering keeping T Kyle Williams over G Mansfield Wrotto.

The other option would be to move Steve Vallos into the starting line-up at C with Chris Gray at RG. If the reserves are RG Ray Willis and RT Kyle Williams, then Wrotto is really in trouble. If the reserves are RG Wrotto and and RT Ray Willis, then Williams is the longshot to make the team. There is still a lot of time for things to be decided, but the formations the team uses will telegraph their current intentions.

5) Tight Ends. The Seahawks list the tight ends as Will Heller, Jeb Putzier, and John Carlson on the depth chart. Fans probably expect that order to reverse by the start of the season, but that isn't guaranteed. The Seahawks could show a lot more two-tight end sets to compensate for the situation at WR and improve the running game. If that is the case, then Heller might be in there for a majority of the snaps (a la Billy Bajema in San Francisco) with Putzier and Carlson splitting time. It may take a half season for Carlson to eclipse Putzier in terms of playing time. All three should get a decent amount of playing time this year.

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Seahawks Roster: Offense

QB (3)
Starter: Matt Hasselbeck
Locks: Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye

RB (5)
Starters: HB Julius Jones, FB Leonard Weaver
Locks: HB Maurice Morris, HB T.J. Duckett
Looking safe: FB Owen Schmitt
Fighting chance: FB David Kirtman
Longshots: FB Dan Curran, HB Justin Forsett

WR (6)
Starters: Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram
Locks: Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor
Looking safe: Logan Payne
Insurance Policy: Seneca Wallace
Longshot: Jordan Kent

TE (3)
Starter: John Carlson
Locks: Jeb Putzier, Will Heller

OL (9)
Starters: LT Walter Jones, LG Mike Wahle, C Chris Spencer, RG Rob Sims, RT Sean Locklear
Locks: G/C Chris Gray, T/G Floyd Womack, T/G Ray Willis, G Mansfield Wrotto
Next in line: T Kyle Williams

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Seahawks Tight Ends: Complete Players

Seahawks Position Watch: Tight Ends

The Seahawks made a seemingly strange move when they traded away their third round pick to jump 17 spots (from 55 to 38) and grab John Carlson. Many people had Carlson pegged to go at 56 to the Green Bay Packers. Mock drafts are certainly not a reliable source to evaluate a player or the intentions of real NFL teams, but it was a bit of a head scratcher.

What it did reveal, is that the Seahawks really felt strongly about John Carlson. And it isn't like they somehow missed Carlson's 40-time on the scouting report. It just isn't important to how the Seahawks plan to use him. Carlson is more of a classic tight end. He isn't the in-vogue vertical threat, but rather a complete tight end that can block and catch. Vernon Davis can't do either very well, but he sure can get downfield.

In Mike Holmgren's offense, the tight end doesn't need to run vertical routes. Given the struggles of the offensive line, the tight end needs to be able to block effectively, find the soft spots in zones, and catch the ball when it gets to him. Carlson is perfect for that. Jeb Putzier and Will Heller are of the same mold. Heller is a little bit taller and bigger, but the three guys have the same style of play. These guys won't be glamorous, but they will get the job done.

It really gives the Seahawks the option of going with a two tight end set with multiple options. They can run to either side with confidence in the run blocking of the tight end, they can keep both guys in to pass-block, they can send either guy out on a short pattern, or they can send both guys out and open things up for the receivers. This group of tight ends won't be making the highlight reel, but they will help the entire offense run better.

Starter: John Carlson
Locks: Jeb Putzier, Will Heller

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Seahawks Offensive Line Reorganzied

Seahawks Position Watch: Offensive Line (Part 2 of 2)

The Seahawks offensive line will likely only have one change in terms of overall personnel from last year. Enter Mike Wahle, Exit Tom Ashworth. That one change has huge implications for how the entire unit will function. Also, Mike Solari takes over for Bill Laveroni, and hopefully Mike Holmgren doesn't stick his nose in too much and mess things up.

Mike Wahle was the best free agent guard available this side of Alan Faneca. There were a handful of good tackles that were either franchised or re-signed with their own teams, but after Faneca, Mike Wahle is the best offensive linemen in the NFL that switched teams. Mike Wahle is the answer to the question that has been asked since March 2006. How are the Seahawks going to replace Steve Hutchinson?

Wahle isn't some ordinary veteran. He gives the Seahawks a very good chance to have a Pro Bowl left-side again. Walt & Wahle are going to like playing next to each other. And that will improve the rest of the line as well. Rob Sims wasn't ready to fill Steve Hutchinson's shoes last year, just as Womack wasn't the year before. Now he can move over to right guard where things won't be nearly as tough.

Getting Chris Gray out of the starting line-up is very important. Even though his output has been declining, the reason he shouldn't start isn't because he isn't good enough. Chris Gray is the ideal reserve interior offensive linemen. You can count on him to be ready to come in at left guard, right guard, or center and play well for a few weeks while someone else gets healthy or even for the rest of the season. At this point in his career, he will benefit greatly from avoiding the weekly wear and tear all season. So, he will be at his best when he is asked to play.

Floyd Womack is also a good backup player. He can play either tackle or guard, and is best kept as a backup plan because of his injury history. Now that the offensive line is more appropriately balanced (it had been very tackle heavy), Womack can spend his time preparing to be the reserve tackle.
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Through some experiments that lacked direction or follow through, Ray Willis has quietly developed into a younger version of Womack. A versatile reserve lineman that can play guard or tackle. His size is alluring, but don't be confused. Willis is incapable of playing left tackle in the NFL, but he should have the right side of the line covered. And that leaves Mansfield Wrotto. He is capable of being a decent reserve, but is probably a year away from being ready to serve as the first line of defense at guard.

Chris Spencer might even benefit the most from the changes. He doesn't have to worry about blown assignments to his left. Things on the right side could be trickier, but if Rob Sims is struggling with assignments, then Chris Gray is waiting in the wings to step in and at least execute properly. Wahle and Gray are also good examples for Sims, Wrotto, and Spencer to learn from.

Although they are capable of playing on the inside, Womack and Willis will primarily function as the reserve tackles. Kyle Williams is a hard working player that will likely land on the practice squad for another season, but he'll be on the active roster if any of the 9 guys in front of him get injured enough to warrant placing them on IR. Or if one of the guys currently slated to fill a reserve role (i.e., Floyd Womack) suffers an injury during training camp. That could be a window for Williams.

Starters: LT Walter Jones, LG Mike Wahle, C Chris Spencer, RG Rob Sims, RT Sean Locklear
Locks: G/C Chris Gray, T/G Floyd Womack, T/G Ray Willis, G Mansfield Wrotto
Next in line: T Kyle Williams

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Back to Football: Offensive Line

Seahawks Position Watch: Offensive Line (Part 1 of 2)

In 2008, the overall performance of the Seahawks offensive (aw-fen-siv) line was offensive (uh-fen-siv) at times. LG Rob Sims struggled during his first season as a starter, and Chris Spencer was less than stellar in his first full season at center, after moving around between guard and center in 2006. Chris Gray looked old, not a surprise given that he is (at least for a football player). Walter Jones and Sean Locklear performed adequately, but not anywhere near as well as they did in 2005 or even 2006. The problems on the interior certainly make things a lot more difficult on the tackles.

At first glance, it looks like the Seahawks didn't do much to address these issues. They are once again putting their faith in the two young guys on the interior, but the team has at least made a few minor moves to provide more stability. The types of moves that really should have been made as soon as Steve Hutchinson left town. It remains to be seen if Mike Solari will take a wise approach in putting together a plan that makes sense. All indications are that his coaching philosophy is exactly what the Seahawks need, from both a development and cohesive standpoint.

Bill Laveroni stumbled through the last two offseasons with no vision for the future, or plan for how the line would adjust to injury scenarios. In the NFL, that is the name of the game because an injury along the offensive line is inevitable. Laveroni is an easy scapegoat, but shouldn't the blame really be on Mike Holmgren. If coaching was a problem on the offensive line, then the head coach should be responsible. Especially when he was making the key (bad) decisions. It's hard to say how much input Laveroni really had.

The team made some serious errors with shuffling Chris Spencer around, wasted time trying Tom Ashworth at guard, tried to replace Steve Hutchinson with the oft-injured Floyd Womack, left Chris Gray in the starting line-up too long, and didn't capitalize on the ability of Ray Willis. It would be easy to say hindsight is 20/20, but the errors made were obvious at the time and pointed out on this blog and elsewhere.

The last two offseasons have been torturous as the Seahawks failed to put together or execute an offensive line strategy that made sense. Let's hope this offseason is different. Later today, we will turn our attention to the future and examine who the Seahawks have and how they can best utilize and capitalize on the skills and abilities of this unit in 2008.

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Lofa Tatupu Driving McDrunk

Lofa Tatupu, fresh off signing his $42 million deal and finishing mini-camp, was arrested on suspicion of DUI in a McDonald's parking lot. According to police reports, Tatupu blew a 0.155/0.158 at the station, nearly two hours after he was arrested. Disappointing. Because he is a well-liked player and Pro Bowler, Seahawks fans will be quick to forgive and make excuses. That is the wrong approach. Whether you are critical on third down, or even a generally good guy off-the-field, there really isn't a good explanation for drunk driving. At least he didn't kill anyone.

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Finally Three QBs

Seahawks Position Watch: Quarterbacks

The Seahawks finally have three real quarterbacks. Matt Hasselbeck is in the prime of his career, and probably has several strong seasons ahead of him. His challenge this year will be to adjust to all of the changes. He will be handing off to different backs, throwing to two new tight ends, and dealing with receivers he has less rapport with. Matt has proven he can handle those things, so I don't expect it to be too much of a problem. It might mean he gets slightly less time off than usual during training camp and the preaseason. I expect him to go back to the Pro Bowl.

Now that Charlie Frye is on-board, the Seahawks have a bridge to the future. He will be a free agent at the end of 2008, so this is an important year for the Seahawks and Frye to size each other up. Frye would at least compete for the starting job with most NFL teams (except teams with starters that get Pro Bowl consideration), so he will be looking for at least a guaranteed back-up job in 2009. That is what he will be looking for from the Seahawks. And the Seahawks would like him to show enough that they feel comfortable paying him to be that guy. It will depend completely on his performance this season.

Seneca Wallace is probably safe as the #2 QB as long as Mike Holmgren is around. He probably doesn't want to break in a new QB to his system if Hasselbeck goes down. He might even continue to be be just as reticent when it comes to using Wallace is any other capacity. Again, it will depend on the comfort level of Holmgren with Frye.
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Wallace has never really been the post-Hasselbeck plan for the future. Frye might be. Charlie Frye is a year younger, 5 inches taller, and has started 15 more games than Seneca Wallace. He could end up being the bridge between Hasselbeck and the as-yet-undrafted QB of the future. If Frye doesn't work out, then the Seahawks will need to either draft a 3rd/4th round QB or sign/trade for someone similar to Frye next offseason (e.g., Kyle Boller, Chris Simms).

If Frye earns the confidence of Tim Ruskell and Jim Mora to assume the #2 spot by the end of the season, then look for him to be re-signed and Seneca Wallace to be used all over the field in 2009. Frye will only re-sign if he is confident he is the first option after Hasselbeck and won't have to fight Wallace for the back-up job. For this season Wallace is probably #2a and Frye #2b.

Starter: Matt Hasselbeck
Locks: Seneca Wallace, Charlie Frye

Tomorrow: Seahawks Offensive Line Analysis

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Crowded Backfield

Seahawks Position Watch: Running Backs

There is probably more turnover in the backfield that any other spot on the Seahawks roster. The Seahawks started last year with the following five backs:

RB Shaun Alexander, RB Maurice Morris, RB Alvin Pearman, FB Mack Strong, FB Leonard Weaver

And by Week 5, both Pearman and Strong were on injured reserve.

The 2008 version of the Seahawks presents an almost entirely different cast of characters, and a roster situation that many fans are completely misconstruing. At this point, there are as many as 8 running backs with a realistic chance to make the team. However, that list could easily be cut down to 6 guys depending on how liberally you want to apply the term realistic:

RB Julius Jones, RB Maurice Morris, RB T.J. Duckett, RB Justin Forsett, FB Leonard Weaver, FB David Kirtman, FB Owen Schmitt, FB Dan Curran

Those 6 (or 8) guys are fighting for 5 roster spots. Julius Jones, Maurice Morris, T.J. Duckett, and Leonard Weaver are guaranteed to take up 5 of those spots as long as they remain healthy. And it really comes down to a battle between David Kirtman and Owen Schmitt for the backup fullback job.

For whatever reasons, a good percentage of the 12th man has it in their heads that Morris is vulnerable to being cut and/or Weaver will be lucky to end up in a time-share situation with Schmitt at fullback. That is just nonsense. Morris and Weaver are the only two backs remaining that were on the active roster for all of 2007. Stability counts for something. David Kirtman is also a little bit of a forgotten man. Those three have spent a combined 11 seasons with the organization. That is 11 more than the rest of the running backs combined.
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At tailback, Julius Jones was brought in to be the game-breaker, and he should be considered the "starter". Duckett will serve as thunder to Jones' lightning, but he isn't just a power back. He has the skills to fight for a full-time starting gig in the right offense (unfortunately for him, this isn't it).

Morris might start training camp in a time-share situation, but Jones will pick up more and more of the load as time goes on. The size of his role will depend on if Jones can stay healthy, and how fast he picks up the offense and jells with the rest of the unit. Morris will eventually land in his usual role of backup plan and third down back. Just because he isn't likely to emerge as the starter doesn't mean he is going anywhere.

And then there is Justin Forsett. Don't get me wrong, Forsett is one of the better #4 HB the Seahawks have had in training camp in a awhile. He just isn't fast enough to get regular action in the NFL as a speed back, and that is all he is. If one of the three halfbacks ahead of his goes down in the preaseason, then he stands a decent chance to make the team, instead of forcing the Seahawks to go get someone else. That's about it; unless he somehow gets a lot faster in the next two months than he has been able to show so far (maybe his game speed is great).

At fullback, the situation is pretty simple. Forget all the hoopla about Owen Schmitt. I hope he does well, I hope he makes it to multiple Pro Bowls in his career, I love his attitude and character, I plan to buy an Owen Schmitt jersey someday. Let's get that out of the way. However, he is still a fifth round fullback fighting to earn a roster spot over David Kirtman. And Dan Curran might even make it a three man race, although I doubt that.

Schmitt has the clear edge on Kirtman because of his size, but he will need to show he can be a solid special teams player if he is going to earn that spot. Schmitt could struggle with his blocking one on one against regular NFL linebackers, and it remains to be seen if his receiving skills will translate to the NFL passing game. This isn't college or a Country Road in West Virginia, Mountain Mommas. This is the NFL and things are many very good college players don't make it. That being said, I think Schmitt will easily get the better of Kirtman when it is all said and done.

Leonard Weaver is a very strong runner, an excellent run blocker, and a very good receiver. I suspect he has and will continue to focus most of his attention on continuing to improve his pass-blocking, and he already made big strides in that area last year. He was on the short list lat year for Pro Bowl consideration, and now he is going to move into a time-share situation with an unproven, late-round rookie? Ask yourself if that makes sense. You can like Owen Schmitt, but the coronation that is taking place right now is premature and a little foolish. If you don't believe me, then go ask Owen Schmitt.

Starters: HB Julius Jones, FB Leonard Weaver
Locks: HB Maurice Morris, HB T.J. Duckett
Looking safe: FB Owen Schmitt
Fighting chance: FB David Kirtman
Longshots: FB Dan Curran, HB Justin Forsett

Up Next: Quarterbacks and Offensive Line

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Bobby Engram: Earned a Raise?

Bobby Engram is understandably upset. Any 35-year-old NFL player in the final year of his contract wants more money, especially after the best year of his career. Engram is now officially the Rod Tidwell of the Seattle Seahawks..."Show Me the Money." Engram and the Seahawks will work this out, so it shouldn't be too much of a concern, but it is worth taking a look at further than the gut reaction of "pay the man, he earned it."

NFL players get paid based on projected future output. When Engram signed his two-year extension, he had just finished a season that left him unable to play for a stretch of ten weeks in the middle of the season for non-football related health reasons. I don't recall him giving the team money back for time missed. Something to think about.

Last year Engram overperformed based on his salary. The year before he underperformed. Unfortunately for Bobby, what matters most is how you perform in a contract year. If Engram thought he was going to play as well as he did last year, then he should have signed a one-year contract and cashed in this year, but he didn't and he didn't.

The problem with wanting to renegotiate up after better than expected performance is that no player ever wants to renegotiate down after worse than expected performance. Signing a contract is making a calculated risk.

Engram is now in a position to try and squeeze some more money out of the Seahawks. The fans like him, he is coming off the best year of his career, and Deion Branch is out with an injury. He is exploiting a situation favorable to him, and he should. That is what the Seahawks were able to do a year ago. However, any negotiations need to be based on projected future performance, rather than some form of back payment for last year.

Is it reasonable to expect Bobby Engram to have the second 1,000 yard receiving season of his 12 year career in 2008? Will he even play in 2009? What is the risk that the 35-year-old will miss time with injuries or thyroid problems? Those are the questions to ponder in determining if he "deserves" a new contract. He will want more guaranteed money because he knows this might be his last season. If Engram thinks he is going to have a great 2008, then he should get paid well as a free agent next year, right?

Engram has some leverage, but not much. He will likely get a contact extension with a decently high base salary for future years, but only a modest increase for this year (or alternatively some guaranteed money for future years).

Tomorrow: Seahawks Running Back Analysis

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Not so Wide Open or Up for Grabs

Seahawks Position Watch: Wide Receivers

The Seahawks wide receiver situation has been deemed "wide open" or "up for grabs" by many. It seems the temptation for puns is just to great. The fact of the matter is that the wide receiver outlook is actually pretty rigid with a minimal chance of anything unexpected happening. That might not generate a lot of interest or make someone want to read a column, but it is the reality of the situation.

The Seahawks aren't like many teams that simply have two starting receivers. In Mike Holmgren's offense there is a flanker, slot, and split end that should all be considered starters. And depending on who is in rhythm or not, the reserve receivers will see regular action. They will also alter plays and formations depending on match-ups and put players into different positions (e.g. they might put Burleson into the slot with Engram at split end in the redzone against the Rams).

So, making a lot of distinctions about who is at what receiver position becomes a little tedious and ultimately unimportant. That being said, let's take a look at where the roster stands.

Bobby Engram is firmly entrenched as the starting slot receiver. Nate Burleson is expected to start at split end. And Deion Branch is the starting flanker when healthy. Those three should be thought of as the "starting receivers". Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor are both very capable, will clearly make the team, and will push Branch and Burleson for playing time. The amount of action they get will be largely dependent on the health of Branch and the consistency of Burleson, both of which are concerns. Taylor will probably start at flanker in Week One with the potential to put up big numbers in Branch's absence. Obomanu will probably rotate in at the slot and split end. Again, somewhat unimportant distinctions.

That means 4 or 5 roster spots are taken by receivers, depending on if Deion Branch is active or on the PUP list. That leaves anywhere from 0-2 spots for additional receivers. Given the injury to Branch, 0 is extremely unlikely to start the season, so it is really a question of if 1 or 2 more receivers will make the team, and it comes down to a choice between Logan Payne and Jordan Kent.
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Logan Payne is ready to play in the NFL right now. Jordan Kent isn't. Payne would also bring some stability if called upon because he can be counted on to run the correct routes and catch the ball when it gets to him. His speed isn't great, but he is the type of guy that can thrive in the slot. He can also make an impact on special teams coverage and blocking units. Kent is the better athlete, but he is unpolished and doesn't yet have a high Football IQ. That isn't the kind of player the Seahawks would need if it comes down to playing the 6th or 7th WR on the depth chart.

It would take some pretty dramatic development by Jordan Kent to overcome Logan Payne for a roster spot if the team only keeps 5 receivers (not counting Branch). And it will take some substantial growth for the Seahawks to justify a 6th WR roster spot (in addition to Branch) for Kent with Seneca Wallace on the team.

Basically, Logan Payne has a really good chance of making the team if Deion Branch isn't ready to play in Week One. Otherwise, he really has to prove himself to earn an additional spot at the cost of depth at another position. Jordan Kent is in the same situation, but behind Payne, and it will take quite a bit for him to move ahead. His best chance to make the team is an injury to one of the five guys in front of him (seven if you count Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace).

Starters: Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram
Locks: Ben Obomanu, Courtney Taylor
Insurance Policy: Seneca Wallace
Looking safe: Logan Payne
Longshot: Jordan Kent

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