Thursday, July 6, 2006

A rematch of last year's NFC Championship game seems very likely. Several analysts, however, believe that this year Carolina will come out on top. The points they make give a decent explaination of what went wrong last year for Carolina and how things could be different this season. However, I posit that if a rematch does occur, the circumstances should be much as they were last year.

Point: Home field advantage was very important for Seattle, and things will be different in Charlotte.
Counterpoint: Carolina plays four games against the NFC East. They also have to play Atlanta and Tampa Bay twice in the tough NFC South. Seattle gets to play the NFC North and the weaker teams in the NFC West twice. Seattle does play the tough AFC West, but that includes a game against Oakland. Carolina plays the equally tough AFC North with much improved teams in Baltimore and Cleveland. The Panthers also play Cincinnati and Pittsburgh late enough in the season that any injury issues with Roethlisberger and Palmer should be resolved. Even if the Panthers are the most talented team in the NFC, their schedule will make it difficult to lock up home field advantage.

Point: The lack of another quality receiver allowed the Seahawks to key on Steve Smith.
Counterpoint: Jake Delhomme always locks on to one receiver. When Smith was hurt in 2004, it was Muhsin Muhammad. There might not be enough room for the egos of Smith and Johnson; and Me-shawn could be a disruptive force if Delhomme is not just throwing him the damn ball. Johnson is a quality receiver, but he is slow and not someone who can stretch the field. Johnson could be more disruptive than helpful and is not the type of recevier that Carolina really needs to open up the field for Steve Smith.

Point: Nick Goings and Jamal Robertson severely handicapped the running game and offense in general. A healthy De'Shaun Foster or Deangelo Williams makes the Carolina offense much more dynamic.
Counterpoint: Stephen Davis is gone, and with De'Shaun Foster it is a question of when, not if, he will get injured. That leaves Carolina with rookie Deangelo Williams. At 5'9", 214, he is small and could take a beating over the course of a full season in the NFL. He also comes with his own durability issues. "He has suffered a broken foot that cost him most of his sophomore season in high school, a knee sprain that cost him two games as a freshman in 2002, a season ending MCL tear in his left knee vs. Cincinnati in 2003 and a broken leg in the 2004 GMAC Bowl. He already has a lot of mileage on his legs," according to Scouts, Inc. Even if Williams can stay healthy, the Panthers could be relying on a rookie to perform in an important game. The Panthers could easily find themselves playing Nick Goings and Jamal Robertson again. Last year's third-stringer Rod Smart is also no longer with the team.

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