It is kind of hard to believe, but the 2005 49ers did double their win total from the previous year. Unfortunately that only amounted to two more wins. The worst part of it all is those two wins were the last two games of the season, which probably cost them Reggie Bush. At least it saved them from the disgrace of having the #1 overall pick in the draft for the second-year in a row. It might have been all for the best if TE Vernon Davis plays as expected. The San Diego Chargers finished 4-12 in 2003, but rebounded to go 12-4 the following season when Antonio Gates came into his own. Remember, the Chargers went 17-31 in LaDanian Tomlinson's first three seasons (2001-2003) despite his 42 touchdowns. Gates did take a year to adjust to football when he came in as an undrafted free agent, but it was the emergence of Gates (and Drew Brees) in 2004 that corresponded with the Chargers success. That being said, the Chargers were 8-8 the year before going 4-12, while the 49ers were 2-14.
Oddly enough, the best offseason news for the 49ers might have been the NFL's decision to allow quarterbacks to "prepare" footballs before the game. Much was made of the slick balls (and Alex Smith's small hands) last season. If the 49ers are to have any success, Smith needs to improve his protection of the football. He threw 11 interceptions and fumbled the ball 11 times, while only completing 1 touchdown. The best offseason move the 49ers made was to trade for Trent Dilfer. At this point in his career, he is willing to serve as a mentor to Alex Smith and should aide in the young quarterback's development.
The 49ers have been the worst team in the NFL over the past two seasons with 6 combined wins. The only other teams that combined for single digit wins in 2004 and 2005 were Oakland and Tennessee (both with 9). And it is hard to see how the 49ers got better outside of the addition of Vernon Davis and a year of development for Alex Smith. They added LG Larry Allen, but overpaid the 34-year-old when they signed him to a 2-year, $10 million contract. The 49ers lost OT Anthony Clement (NY Jets), who might be comparable to Allen at this point in his career. They still have TE Eric Johnson, but both he and Vernon Davis are below-average blockers. The 49ers also lost stud FB Fred Beasley to Miami.
OLB Manny Lawson (Florida State) was a great pick at #22 overall, but he hardly makes up for the loss of both OLB Julian Peterson (Seattle) and OLB Andre Carter (Washington - Note: he will play DE in their 4-3 scheme). When healthy, Peterson is one of the league's biggest playmakers on defense. The 49ers did add speed receiver Antonio Bryant (Cleveland), but lost Brandon Lloyd (Washington) who has the potential to be special with a quarterback that can get him the ball. The 49ers nabbed CB Walt Harris from the Redskins (they released him), but they also lost once-promising CB Ahmed Plummer to retirement. It seems like every addition the 49ers made was met with a loss that was at least as big, or bigger.
It is hard to imagine the 49ers winning many games when their best players after a struggling second-year quarterback and a rookie tight end are probably C Jeremy Newberry and SS Tony Parrish. RB Kevan Barlow has talent, but is extremely soft for how big he is (6'1", 238) and Frank Gore has shown some flashes of his potential, but who is going to block for them with Beasley gone. Eric Johnson played well in 2004 when he was healthy, but missed all of last year with an injury and will be a free agent after this season. DE Bryant Young can still play at 34, but he is starting to show his age, and might show it a lot more this season. It gets even worse when you realize that the one thing Jeremy Newberry, Tony Parrish, Bryant Young, Larry Allen, and Walt Harris all have in common is that they are on the wrong side of 30, with an average age of 32.
Overall, this team is still bad and is not really getting any better. They should get some help next year with another early first round draft pick. Now that the team finally has some cap room to play with (roughly $8.5 million after they sign their rookies), the strategy this year should be to identify the talented, young players to build on going forward. They can use the extra money this year to lock up some key components, while giving them some more freedom to spend next year's cap on signing some key free agents. The 49ers might be lucky to match last year's win total. They do have home games against Oakland and Green Bay, and road matchups with Detroit and New Orleans. If they can find a way to split with Arizona, then they might be able to manage 5 wins, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Key Additions: TE Vernon Davis (R), QB Trent Dilfer (CLE), OLB Manny Lawson (R), WR Antonio Bryant (CLE), CB Walt Harris (WAS), OG Larry Allen (DAL)
Key Losses: OLB Julian Peterson (SEA), WR Brandon Lloyd (WAS), OLB Andre Carter (WAS), FB Fred Beasley (MIA), QB Ken Dorsey (CLE), CB Ahmed Plummer (ret)
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