Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Oakland Raiders (4-12)
The Raiders have not won more than 5 games in a season since their Super Bowl loss following the 2002 season. Art Shell will have a difficult task turning this team into a winner. They have a new starting quarterback, but he plays a lot like the old one. Two rookies could start on defense, the new left-tackle has a quad injury, and a starting receiver wants to be traded. It should be another long season for Raider Nation.

Aaron Brooks (New Orleans) takes over for Kerry Collins. Both tend to be unreliable and make bad decisions at times, but can throw a good deep ball. It is hard to think Brooks is much of an upgrade or even brings anything different to the table. Brooks plays his best when the team is winning, but Oakland should be playing from behind a lot with this defense. Brooks struggles when pressured and the offensive line is not good.

Robert Gallery is moving from RT to LT, but he is currently on the active PUP list with a quad injury. The Raiders say they are just being cautious, so assuming he is healthy, Barry Sims will move from LT to LG, and Art Shell has declared third-round pick RG Paul McQuistan a starter. Last year’s LG Langston Walker will move over to play RT to replace Gallery. Shell, a Hall of Fame left-tackle, might be able to do something with this group, but it is hard to see this line being anything but one of the ten worst with the level of talent and all of the re-shuffling.

Brooks has a lot of weapons with Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, and Lamont Jordan. However, Moss has struggled with injuries the past two seasons and Lamont Jordan dropped passes at an alarming rate last year. Porter is not getting along with Art Shell, and he sat out practice with a calf injury the day after demanding a trade. Porter had 16 more catches than Moss last season, and Moss is really only good on deep routes and in the red zone. Porter is critical to moving the chains with any consistency. Kerry Collins had all of these weapons, but they only managed to finish 21st in total offense last year, and were dead-last in scoring offense during the second half of the season.

The defense is in much worse shape than the offense. The team finished 27th in total defense last year, and it looks like they will start two rookies: second-round pick OLB Thomas Howard (UTEP) and first-rounder Michael Huff (Texas). Huff should take one of the safety spots; probably replacing SS Renaldo Hill (Miami). The return of DE Lance Johnston (Minnesota) to go along with DE Derrick Burgess, who came over from Philadelphia last year to post 16 sacks, makes the line solid on the outside. However, DT Warren Sapp needs to remain healthy (he missed 6 games last year), especially with DT Ted Washington (Cleveland) and DT Ed Jasper (Philadelphia) gone.

The linebackers will be interesting with last year’s third-round pick Kirk Morrison in the middle and rookie Thomas Howard starting on the outside. Morrison played well as a rookie on the weakside, but it might be tough to adjust to playing in the middle (especially alongside a rookie). CB Charles Woodson (Green Bay) is gone. The Raiders added a pair of aging corners from New England, Tyrone Poole (34) and Duane Starks (32), but neither should start. Last year’s first-round pick CB Fabian Washington will, but he did not have an interception and only had 5 pass defenses (3 against Tennessee) despite starting 10 games and playing in all 16. In other words, there are questions marks all over the defense.

Art Shell might eventually be able to bring the Raiders back to respectability, but it isn’t going to happen this year. The current streak of 3 straight losing seasons is the first in Al Davis’ 43 years, and it looks like 4 straight is inevitable. The Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs are all tough again, and Oakland is 2-16 in the division over the past 3 seasons. Art Shell and Tom Walsh will run a lot more, but I am not sure they will be successful doing it. It would be hard to imagine the Raiders winning more than 6 games in 2006, and 4 or 5 wins seems more likely.

Key Additions: HC Art Shell, SS Michael Huff (R), QB Aaron Brooks (NO), DE Lance Johnston (MIN), LB Thomas Howard (R), RG Paul McQuistan (R), CB Tyrone Poole (NE), CB Duane Starks (NE)
Key Losses: DT Ted Washington (CLE), CB Charles Woodson (GB), QB Kerry Collins, SS Renaldo Hill (MIA), DT Ed Jasper (PHI), LB Tim Johnson (BAL)

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