1) San Diego Chargers
2) Denver Broncos
3) Kansas City Chiefs
4) Oakland Raiders
The top three teams in the division did relatively little in the offseason. They were all good last year and they will all be good again. The loss of offensive coordinators in Denver and Kansas City could cause problems, and Drew Brees' depature could hurt San Diego. Overall, all three teams should be about as good as they were last season and that probably means San Diego wins the division.
Denver and Kansas City get much tougher schedules because of their better finishes last season. Denver gets New England and Indianapolis, Kansas City draws Miami and Jacksonville, and San Diego plays Buffalo and Tennessee. All three teams will probably finish with double-digit wins, but San Diego could have a slight edge due to the scheduling. They do not have to play Kansas City until Week 7 or Denver until Week 11, which gives Philip Rivers time to get comfortable. The home games that San Diego needs to win against those two teams come in Weeks 14 and 15.
All three teams will challenge for the division crown and the two wildcard spots. Ty Law might not be enough to get the Kansas City defense over the hump and the offense will take a hit with the loss of Willie Roaf. They will still be a tough team every week, but they could finish just outside the playoffs again. Oakland is one of handful of teams that have no chance at winning their division, and will almost certainly finish a distant last.
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