San Diego Chargers (9-7)
The Chargers are widely considered the best team in the NFL not to make the playoffs last year. They played a brutal schedule and things get a lot easier this year. However, the no longer have QB Drew Brees and will finally be throwing Philip Rivers into the fire. Other than letting Brees walk, the Chargers did not do much this past offseason. Then again, they didn't need to.
The team will definitely feel the loss of Drew Bress, he threw 51 touchdowns over the past two seasons - only Peyton Manning (77), Tom Brady (54), and Jake Delhomme (53) threw more. However, Philip Rivers might be alright. He started 51 games in college (second all-time to David Greene) and was the MVP of four bowl games. There was a reason he was taken fourth overall in the 2004 Draft. Rivers has also been able to learn from the bench for 2 years. He has the perfect weapons for a young quarterback to be successful in RB LaDanian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates.
Marty Schottenheimer has quietly built a top 15 offensive line. C Nick Hardwick is the best player on an offensive line with no starters drafted in the first or second rounds. However, they play well as a unit and have delivered for LaDanian Tomlinson as well as for backups Jesse Chatman and Michael Turner, who have averaged 6 yards per carry over the last two years. Second-round pick OT Marcus McNeill (Auburn) adds some quality depth.
LaDanian Tomlinson is the most complete running back in the NFL. An average season over his five-year career is about 70 receptions to go along with 1,500 rushing yards and 16 total touchdowns. Rivers will rely on him as a safety valve in the passing game and his receptions could creep back up a little this year. He caught 179 balls in Drew Brees' first two years as a starter, but had only 104 catches over the last two seasons. The biggest concern will be overworking LaDanian Tomlinson who has handled the ball 2,044 times in his first five seasons (far and away the record). If he does get hurt Michael Turner is more than couple of being effective. Schottenheimer would be wise to use him some between the 20s to preserve Tomlinson.
Rivers can also rely on Antonio Gates if he gets in trouble. They do not need to be a vertical passing offense for Rivers to be successful. Keenan McCardell is also a very good veteran receiver. He is not the flashiest guy, but he is very dependable. McCardell become a starter in 1996. If you do not count the year (2004) he held out for most of the season before he was traded from Tampa Bay to San Diego, he has only missed 5 games in the other 9 years. Over those 9 years he has averaged over 1,000 yards per season with just under 80 catches and 6 touchdowns. Those are great numbers, especially considering the offenses he has played in. In fact, he has never finished with less than 60 catches or 5 touchdowns since his first year as a starter. The offense could use another receiver, but WR Eric Parker is decent.
The team could be good on offense, but they will be exceptional on defense. San Diego had the top run defense in the league in 2004, and only allowed 8 more yards than Pittsburgh last year. That is remarkable considering they faced Larry Johnson as well as Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell twice each. OLB Shawne Merrimen should be even better than he was in his rookie campaign and might be NFL Defensive Player of the Year before long. He could be headed for 15 sacks. LB Donnie Edwards created some fuss this offseason about his contract and has been sidelined with a back injury. The injury might have something to do with his contract demands not being met. There is some reason for concern, but if it continues, then LB Shaun Phillips and LB Matt Wilhelm are capable of playing well.
The concern for this defense is the secondary, but it is getting better. CB Quentin Jammer showed a lot of improvement last year and is finally starting to live up to his status as the #5 overall pick in 2002. He is not an elite corner yet, but he looks to be headed in that direction, which is part of the reason San Diego signed him to a 5-year extension (tacking on three years and about $30 million to his current deal). CB Antonion Cromartie was a risky pick because he lacks playing time in college and is coming off an ACL injury. However, he has the talent to become a pro bowler and could easily end up being the best corner in the 2006 draft class. He has looked great so far in camp. The Chargers also added FS Marlon McCree (Carolina). He is not exceptional, but he started 14 games for the Panthers last season as well as the three playoff games. He brings some toughness to the secondary; he led Carolina (the whole team, not just the DBs) with 88 tackles last year.
It is hard to be too confident about the Chargers with a first-time starter at quarterback, but Rivers has a lot of things going for him. The team could also use another solid player in the secondary and a quality receiver. However, if the team adds a player at each of those positions next year and Rivers matures as expected, then San Diego will be on every list of Super Bowl contenders. It will be interesting to see how everything comes together this year, but if Rivers and Cromartie play well, then this team should make the playoffs and might win the division. Their third place schedule gives them a big advantage over Denver and Kansas City. San Diego plays Buffalo and Tennessee, while Denver gets New England and Indianapolis and Kansas City draws Miami and Jacksonville.
Key Additions: CB Antonio Cromartie (R), FS Marlon McCree (CAR), OT Marcus McNeill (R)
Key Losses: QB Drew Brees (NO), WR Reche Caldwell (NE), OC Bob Hallen (CLE-ret)
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