Denver did not make many offseason changes, but they might have shot themselves in the foot by letting a few key players go. The Broncos could easily slide back down to the 10-6 or 9-7 range where they were the three seasons prior last year or they could maintain their spot at the top of the AFC West.
It is still hard to trust Jake Plummer to lead an offense, be he defintely earned the No Mistake Jake moniker last year. Plummer might revert to his old form of throwing about as many interceptions as touchdowns. He could maintain his high level of play, but the loss of offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak (Houston), RB Mike Anderson (Baltimore), and TE Jeb Putzier (Houston) could all contribute to some regression in Plummer's progress. QB Jay Cutler (Vanderbilt) was an excellent pick for the future, but he should not make an impact this year. If anything, his presence might get under Plummer's skin and cause him to play worse.
Only Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Edgerrin James had both more rushing yards and more touchdowns than Mike Anderson last year. Denver made no effort to re-sign him and that might have been a mistake. Putzier is not special, but he was probably the best tight end to switch teams in free agency. The fact that Kubiak brought Putzier with him to Houston tells us something about Putzier's value. Second-round pick TE Tony Scheffler (Western Michigan) could turn into a good player, but he is not a good blocker and comes from a small school.
The offense should get a big boost if WR Javon Walker (Green Bay) gets back to his pro bowl form of 2004. However, Walker is coming off a serious knee injury. Brett Favre has made a lot of average receivers look good over the years, so it remains to be seen if Walker will play well with Plummer tossing him the ball. WR Rod Smith is on the decline and this could be the year his age really catches up with him. It is hard to believe WR Ashley Lelie will open the season in a Broncos uniform and he is killing his chances to make an impact. If Javon Walker is fully-recovered and can play well without Favre, Rod Smith maintains his level of play, and Ashley Lelie comes in and contributes then this could be one of the best receiving corps in the league. With all the question marks, it could end up being one of the worst. Fourth-rounder WR Brandon Marshall (Central Florida) is a playmaker, but he might not be ready to contribute right away.
Good offensive line play has been a staple in Denver with their zone-blocking scheme. Jeff Jagodzinski (now in Green Bay after a brief stint Atlanta) and Gary Kubiak are both gone. The line could take a step back because of it, but that seems unlikely. They should once again easily be a top ten line, led by pro bowler C Tom Nalen and an outstanding player in LT Matt Lepsis. He should make the pro bowl now that Willie Roaf has retired. Only Indianapolis has allowed fewer sacks than this group the past two seasons.
The defense should be about as good as they were last year. They are solid in the secondary led by CB Champ Bailey, who is probably the best corner in the league. CB Darrent Williams, FS John Lynch, and SS Nick Ferguson are all solid players as well. MLB Al Wilson is one of the best in the league at his position and anchors that linebacker group.
The problem with Denver is the defensive line and an anemic pass-rush. Mike Shanahan brought in four guys (DE Courtney Brown, DE Ebenezer Ekuban, DT Michael Myers, DT Gerard Warren) from the Cleveland Browns last offseason. The group played well, but that had a lot to do with the leadership of DE Bryce Fisher (Baltimore). The Broncos made no effort to keep Fisher either, which could also have been a mistake. He is going to start for the Ravens. Shanahan went back to Cleveland to get another defensive linemen in DE Kenard Lang, but he won't make an impact. The team only took one defensive player in the draft and waited until the fourth round to do so, but they got the right guy. DE Elvis Dumervil (Louisville) led the NCAA in sacks last year with 20 and also had 11 forced fumbles. His size and inconsistency make him a candidate to be nothing more than pass-rush specialist on third-down, but that happens to be exactly what Denver needs.
The Broncos could feel some serious ramifications from the loss of Gary Kubiak and the three guys that they made no effort to keep around. They did not lose anyone in free agenc;, they actually cut Anderson, Putzier, and Pryce. Even if the Broncos slip a little, they will still challenge for the division title and either of the wildcard spots. Denver does have some tough games against New England and Indianapolis, which could really hurt their chances at winning the division. Mike Shanahan might have let his ego get the best of him and it looks like this team might have sacrificed the present for the sake of the future on a few too many occasions.
Key Additions: WR Javon Walker (GB), QB Jay Cutler (R), TE Tony Scheffler (R), DE Elvis Dumervil (R), WR Brandon Marshall (R), DE Kenard Lang (CLE)
Key Losses: OC Gary Kubiak, RB Mike Anderson (BAL), DE Trevor Pryce (BAL), TE Jeb Putzier (HOU)
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